灾害学
災害學
재해학
JOURNAL OF CATASTROPHOLOGY
2014年
4期
52-56
,共5页
道路工程%公路洪灾%孕灾环境分区%模糊概率模型%综合评价
道路工程%公路洪災%孕災環境分區%模糊概率模型%綜閤評價
도로공정%공로홍재%잉재배경분구%모호개솔모형%종합평개
road engineering%road flood%zoning of disaster pregnant environment%fuzzy probability model%comprehensive evaluation
公路洪灾孕灾环境的合理分区可从理论上为公路洪灾的防治工作提供指导。以四川阿坝州为研究对象，根据公路洪灾致灾原理，遴选出公路沿线历史地质灾害发育、地貌条件、岩土体性质、年均降雨量、人口密度、植被覆盖度和地质构造7个因子，依据专家系统分为4级后赋值构成评价指标体系。综合层次分析法和专家效度法得到各指标的相对权重，并结合模糊理论给出模糊权重。采用模糊概率综合评价模型将公路洪灾孕灾环境分成低易发区、中易发区、高易发区和危险区4个危险等级。分区结果显示：阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境发展较为充分，以县为单位分成了高易发区、中易发区和低易发区，分别占全州面积的38.1％、39.4％和22.5％，研究成果对于该区公路洪灾的防治具有积极意义。
公路洪災孕災環境的閤理分區可從理論上為公路洪災的防治工作提供指導。以四川阿壩州為研究對象，根據公路洪災緻災原理，遴選齣公路沿線歷史地質災害髮育、地貌條件、巖土體性質、年均降雨量、人口密度、植被覆蓋度和地質構造7箇因子，依據專傢繫統分為4級後賦值構成評價指標體繫。綜閤層次分析法和專傢效度法得到各指標的相對權重，併結閤模糊理論給齣模糊權重。採用模糊概率綜閤評價模型將公路洪災孕災環境分成低易髮區、中易髮區、高易髮區和危險區4箇危險等級。分區結果顯示：阿壩州公路洪災孕災環境髮展較為充分，以縣為單位分成瞭高易髮區、中易髮區和低易髮區，分彆佔全州麵積的38.1％、39.4％和22.5％，研究成果對于該區公路洪災的防治具有積極意義。
공로홍재잉재배경적합리분구가종이론상위공로홍재적방치공작제공지도。이사천아패주위연구대상，근거공로홍재치재원리，린선출공로연선역사지질재해발육、지모조건、암토체성질、년균강우량、인구밀도、식피복개도화지질구조7개인자，의거전가계통분위4급후부치구성평개지표체계。종합층차분석법화전가효도법득도각지표적상대권중，병결합모호이론급출모호권중。채용모호개솔종합평개모형장공로홍재잉재배경분성저역발구、중역발구、고역발구화위험구4개위험등급。분구결과현시：아패주공로홍재잉재배경발전교위충분，이현위단위분성료고역발구、중역발구화저역발구，분별점전주면적적38.1％、39.4％화22.5％，연구성과대우해구공로홍재적방치구유적겁의의。
A fit environment zoning of geological hazards developing of road flood can provide theoretical ref-erences for the road flood prevention engineering.The road flood in Aba area,Sichuan province is studied.Ac-cording to the road flood causing principles,seven indexes are selected,such as historical geological hazards along the road,landforms,natures of rock and soil,average annual rainfall,population density,vegetation coverage and geological conditions,which are divided into four grades based on expert system,and then the comprehensive eval-uation model of environment zoning of geological hazards development is established after assessment.Each index is calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)and Expert Scoring Method,and then got the fuzzy weights combined fuzzy theory.According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of probability,the environment zoning of geological hazards development is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area,high easy-happening area and dangerous area.The result shows that Aba area have sufficient environmental conditions for road flood,and it is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area and high easy-happening area ac-cording to the administrative districts,respectively accounts for 38.1%,39.6%,22.9%of the state area,this result has a positive significance for management and operation of the road flood in Aba area.
