CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]通过风险评估，探讨上海市松江区2013-2014年冬春季呼吸道传染病发生的可能性、危害性、人群易感性及综合风险大小，为针对性地开展传染病防控提供依据。[方法]应用德尔菲法，邀请各相关领域专家评分，最后根据既定风险评估方案，应用公式P（风险）＝[L（可能性）＋I（危害性）＋V（人群易感性）]/3计算风险等级，综合评价传染病的风险大小。[结果]通过两轮专家风险评估，专家积极系数为1．00，三个方面的权威系数分别为0．70、0．73、0．71，协调系数分别为0．68、0．65、0．67，专家意见趋势一致。将传染病发生的可能性、危害性和易感性进行综合分析，流行性感冒的综合风险为高，肺结核、手足口病、甲型H7 N9流感、水痘和甲型H1 N1流感的综合风险较高，麻疹、猩红热、流行性腮腺炎和人高致病性禽流感的综合风险一般。[结论]松江区2013-2014年冬春季呼吸道传染病防控工作应重点关注风险高和较高的疾病。相关科室应完善相应传染病应急预案，定期开展演练，总结工作经验和教训，努力做好冬春季呼吸道传染病的防控工作。
[목적]통과풍험평고，탐토상해시송강구2013-2014년동춘계호흡도전염병발생적가능성、위해성、인군역감성급종합풍험대소，위침대성지개전전염병방공제공의거。[방법]응용덕이비법，요청각상관영역전가평분，최후근거기정풍험평고방안，응용공식P（풍험）＝[L（가능성）＋I（위해성）＋V（인군역감성）]/3계산풍험등급，종합평개전염병적풍험대소。[결과]통과량륜전가풍험평고，전가적겁계수위1．00，삼개방면적권위계수분별위0．70、0．73、0．71，협조계수분별위0．68、0．65、0．67，전가의견추세일치。장전염병발생적가능성、위해성화역감성진행종합분석，류행성감모적종합풍험위고，폐결핵、수족구병、갑형H7 N9류감、수두화갑형H1 N1류감적종합풍험교고，마진、성홍열、류행성시선염화인고치병성금류감적종합풍험일반。[결론]송강구2013-2014년동춘계호흡도전염병방공공작응중점관주풍험고화교고적질병。상관과실응완선상응전염병응급예안，정기개전연련，총결공작경험화교훈，노력주호동춘계호흡도전염병적방공공작。
By means of risk assessment, to explore the likelihood, harmfulness, pop-ulation susceptibility and comprehensive risk in relation to infectious respiratory diseases in late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai , providing the basis for prevention and con-trol of infectious diseases . [ Methods] Delphi method was used and experts were invited to score for designed questions .Infectious respiratory diseases comprehensive risks were evaluated by applying the for-mula P(Risk) =[L(likelihood)+I(impact)+V(vulnerability)]/3 according to the risk evaluation plan. [ Results] After two rounds of risk evaluation by experts , the coefficient of expert activity was 1 .00 , the coefficient of authority was 0.70, 0.73 and 0.71 respectively in likelihood, harmfulness and susceptibility , and the coefficient of coordination was 0.68, 0.65 and 0.67 respectively.The viewpoints of experts tended to be consistent .Comprehensive analysis showed that the risk of influenza was high , and tuberculosis , HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza were relatively high too, while the risk of measles, scarlet fever, mumps were moderate. [Conclusion] During late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District , close attention should be paid to the risk of in-fluenza, tuberculosis, HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian in-fluenza .And it is important that emergency plans should be formulated or improved , drills carried out peri-odically, and experience and lessons summarized .