CAJ | 학술논문

组合预测的主要目的是综合利用各种方法所提供的信息，尽可能地提高预测精度。为此，建立了预测模型与预测对象的关系数据模型，并利用离散化属性数据值来建立知识表达系统和决策表。在此基础上，根据粗糙集理论计算组合预测模型中各单一模型的权系数，将该方法运用到哈尔滨市农业综合机械化程度预测中，从而证明了该方法的可行性和有效性，并可以将此应用到农村剩余劳动力的估算和预测中。
조합예측적주요목적시종합이용각충방법소제공적신식，진가능지제고예측정도。위차，건립료예측모형여예측대상적관계수거모형，병이용리산화속성수거치래건립지식표체계통화결책표。재차기출상，근거조조집이론계산조합예측모형중각단일모형적권계수，장해방법운용도합이빈시농업종합궤계화정도예측중，종이증명료해방법적가행성화유효성，병가이장차응용도농촌잉여노동력적고산화예측중。
The main purpose of combination forecasting is as far as possible to improve the prediction accuracy to compre -hensive use of information that various methods provide .The relative data model between forecast objective and forecast model , and knowledge system and decision table was established respectively by means of converting continuous attribute values into discrete attribute values .On the basis of this , the weight of combination forecast model was calculated according to estimating dependence and significance of attributes in rough set theory , from this , then constructed the combination forecasting model and applied the model to forecast the agriculture comprehensive machinery degree in Har -bin City,the results proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the method ,and this can be applied to the estimation and prediction of rural surplus labor force .