CAJ | 학술논문

LAPS分析系统包含两种资料融合方法，一种是基于修正的Barnes插值方法(LAPS方法)，另一种是基于连续变分的融合方法(STMAS方法)。本文以2012年11号台风“海葵”为例，对LAPS分析系统中这两种方法进行对比分析。结果表明：(1)两种分析方法均能较好分析出台风的环流结构和中心；其中，LAPS方法分析的台风强度略偏弱，但包含小尺度系统较多；相比较而言，STMAS方法分析的台风强度偏强，分析场更加连续、平滑。(2)对高度场、湿度场以及中低层风场和温度场，STMAS方法分析场更加接近探空观测。(3)以LAPS方法分析场为初始场，预报的台风路径误差较STMAS方法大，但对100 mm以上的强降水中心的预报TS评分较高，0-6 h降水预报TS评分也明显高于STMAS方法；而以STMAS方法分析场为初始场，预报的台风强度强于实况，但对大于25 mm和50 mm的雨区预报优于LAPS方法，12-24 h降水预报TS评分也较优。(4)在该台风个例中，对两种方法的降水预报进行平均，所得到的降水预报场具有相对较高的TS评分。
LAPS분석계통포함량충자료융합방법，일충시기우수정적Barnes삽치방법(LAPS방법)，령일충시기우련속변분적융합방법(STMAS방법)。본문이2012년11호태풍“해규”위례，대LAPS분석계통중저량충방법진행대비분석。결과표명：(1)량충분석방법균능교호분석출태풍적배류결구화중심；기중，LAPS방법분석적태풍강도략편약，단포함소척도계통교다；상비교이언，STMAS방법분석적태풍강도편강，분석장경가련속、평활。(2)대고도장、습도장이급중저층풍장화온도장，STMAS방법분석장경가접근탐공관측。(3)이LAPS방법분석장위초시장，예보적태풍로경오차교STMAS방법대，단대100 mm이상적강강수중심적예보TS평분교고，0-6 h강수예보TS평분야명현고우STMAS방법；이이STMAS방법분석장위초시장，예보적태풍강도강우실황，단대대우25 mm화50 mm적우구예보우우LAPS방법，12-24 h강수예보TS평분야교우。(4)재해태풍개례중，대량충방법적강수예보진행평균，소득도적강수예보장구유상대교고적TS평분。
There are two kinds of data immerging methods in the LAPS system. The early method is based on the Barnes interpolation meth-od, namely the "LAPS method". The latest method is based on the continuous variation method, namely the "STMAS method". These two methods have been applied in analyzing and forecasting a typhoon case (HaiKui, 201211) during 2012. The results are as follow. (1) The ty-phoon center and the circulation structure cloud be revealed accurately in the output fields of two analysis methods. For the analysis fields based on the"LAPS method", the analyzed intensity of the typhoon is weaker than observed, but more small-scale systems could be found within it. For the results of the"STMAS method", the analyzed intensity of the typhoon is stronger, and the analysis fields are more continuous and smooth than observations. (2) For geopotential height, humidity, low-level wind and temperature fields, the analyses based on the"ST-MAS method"are closer to soundings than those from the"LAPS method". (3) When WRF model is initialed with the"LAPS method"analy-sis field, typhoon path forecasting error was bigger than when it is initialed with the"STMAS method". But threat scores for 0-6 h lead time and heavy rainfall center (more 100 mm) 24 h forecasts based on the "LAPS method"are both better than those based on the"STMAS meth-od". When WRF model is initialed with the"STMAS method"analysis field, the typhoon strength forecasting was slightly stronger than obser-vation. Furthermore, the threat scores for 12-24 h lead time and middle rainfall (more than 25 mm and 50 mm) 24 h forecast are both better than traditional method. (4) The threat score of precipitation forecasting for the average of two methods is higher than any one of two methods.