CAJ | 학술논문

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料和WRF模式对2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨过程进行数值模拟，结果表明，WRF模式能够成功模拟出本次暴雨过程，特别是对100 mm以上的大暴雨也有较强的模拟能力。基于控制试验，针对北京地区复杂的地形，设计了4组地形敏感性试验。试验结果表明：北京地区局部地形的改变对暴雨落区的模拟影响不大，但对暴雨中心的分布和强度有影响，特别是西南部的局部地形对于本次暴雨过程中降水中心的落区具有很大影响，而北部和东北部的局部地形则作用不明显。进一步研究表明，北京地区西南部的局部地形主要是通过影响低层偏南风急流的流场结构，改变强辐合区和垂直运动的分布和强度，进而引起降水中心位置和强度的改变。
이용NCEP1°×1°재분석자료화WRF모식대2012년7월21일북경특대폭우과정진행수치모의，결과표명，WRF모식능구성공모의출본차폭우과정，특별시대100 mm이상적대폭우야유교강적모의능력。기우공제시험，침대북경지구복잡적지형，설계료4조지형민감성시험。시험결과표명：북경지구국부지형적개변대폭우락구적모의영향불대，단대폭우중심적분포화강도유영향，특별시서남부적국부지형대우본차폭우과정중강수중심적락구구유흔대영향，이북부화동북부적국부지형칙작용불명현。진일보연구표명，북경지구서남부적국부지형주요시통과영향저층편남풍급류적류장결구，개변강복합구화수직운동적분포화강도，진이인기강수중심위치화강도적개변。
Based on NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data and WRF model, numerical simulation for the extreme torrential rain in Beijing on 21 July 2012 was carried out. The results show that the WRF model can successfully simulate this storm event. In particular, it even has the ability to simulate the heavy rain with 24-hour accumulated precipitation more than 100 mm. Using control run as baseline, four terrain sensitivity tests were designed. The results of terrain sensitivity tests indicate that, the changes of the local terrain of Beijing have little influence on the simu-lation for the location of the heavy rain, but have influence on the distribution and intensity of precipitation center. Especially, the local terrain in southwest side of Beijing has a significant impact on the location of precipitation center;the effect of the local terrain in north and northeast side of Beijing is not evident. Further study shows that the local terrain in southwest side of Beijing changed the intensity and distribution of strong convergence area and vertical movement mainly through influencing the structure of southerly jet in the low troposphere, which in turn caused the variation of location and intensity of precipitation center.