上海预防医学
上海預防醫學
상해예방의학
SHANGHAI JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE MEDICINE
2014年
3期
151-153
,共3页
5岁以下儿童%死亡率%灰色模型%预测
5歲以下兒童%死亡率%灰色模型%預測
5세이하인동%사망솔%회색모형%예측
Children under 5 (years)%Mortality rate%Gray model%Forecast
[目的]在分析上海市闸北区2006-2012年5岁以下儿童死因的基础上,运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测闸北区5岁以下儿童死亡率的变化趋势。[方法]对近5年的监测资料进行死因分析,并使用灰色模型( GM )进行拟合、预测死亡率。[结果]闸北区2006-2012年5岁以下儿童死亡以婴儿死亡为主,婴儿死亡以新生儿死亡为主。5年间5岁以下儿童死亡率为3.30‰~4.98‰,2010年略有上升。2006-2012年,新生儿期主要死亡原因为出生窒息,占31.82%。婴儿期主要死亡原因为其他先天异常,占30.43%,出生窒息为第2位,占20.29%。 GM拟合效果好,2013年预测死亡率为3.88‰。[结论]先天异常、出生窒息和意外死亡严重威胁闸北区5岁以下儿童的生命,必须加大新生儿筛查力度,普及新生儿意外死亡的宣教,从而有效降低5岁以下儿童死亡率。灰色模型GM(1,1)对5岁以下儿童死亡率的拟合效果好,可以应用于预测。
[目的]在分析上海市閘北區2006-2012年5歲以下兒童死因的基礎上,運用灰色模型GM(1,1)預測閘北區5歲以下兒童死亡率的變化趨勢。[方法]對近5年的鑑測資料進行死因分析,併使用灰色模型( GM )進行擬閤、預測死亡率。[結果]閘北區2006-2012年5歲以下兒童死亡以嬰兒死亡為主,嬰兒死亡以新生兒死亡為主。5年間5歲以下兒童死亡率為3.30‰~4.98‰,2010年略有上升。2006-2012年,新生兒期主要死亡原因為齣生窒息,佔31.82%。嬰兒期主要死亡原因為其他先天異常,佔30.43%,齣生窒息為第2位,佔20.29%。 GM擬閤效果好,2013年預測死亡率為3.88‰。[結論]先天異常、齣生窒息和意外死亡嚴重威脅閘北區5歲以下兒童的生命,必鬚加大新生兒篩查力度,普及新生兒意外死亡的宣教,從而有效降低5歲以下兒童死亡率。灰色模型GM(1,1)對5歲以下兒童死亡率的擬閤效果好,可以應用于預測。
[목적]재분석상해시갑북구2006-2012년5세이하인동사인적기출상,운용회색모형GM(1,1)예측갑북구5세이하인동사망솔적변화추세。[방법]대근5년적감측자료진행사인분석,병사용회색모형( GM )진행의합、예측사망솔。[결과]갑북구2006-2012년5세이하인동사망이영인사망위주,영인사망이신생인사망위주。5년간5세이하인동사망솔위3.30‰~4.98‰,2010년략유상승。2006-2012년,신생인기주요사망원인위출생질식,점31.82%。영인기주요사망원인위기타선천이상,점30.43%,출생질식위제2위,점20.29%。 GM의합효과호,2013년예측사망솔위3.88‰。[결론]선천이상、출생질식화의외사망엄중위협갑북구5세이하인동적생명,필수가대신생인사사력도,보급신생인의외사망적선교,종이유효강저5세이하인동사망솔。회색모형GM(1,1)대5세이하인동사망솔적의합효과호,가이응용우예측。
Objective] By the use of GM(1,1) model to predict mortality trends of children un-der 5 years, on the basis of the analysis of cause of death in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District of Shanghai City . [ Methods] Nearly 5 years of monitoring data were used for analysis of the cause of death , and the grey model ( GM) was used to fit and predict mortality . [ Results] The death of children under 5 was mainly infant death and the infant death was mainly newborns death from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District.During this five-year period, children mortality under 5 fluctuated from 3.30‰ to 4 .98‰and was slightly increased in 2010 .The main cause of death in the neonatal period was birth as-phyxia ,accounting for 31 .82%.For infant period , The first cause was congenital anomaly , accounting for 30.43% and the second cause was birth asphyxia ,accounting for 20.29%.The fitting effect of GM was fine and the predicted mortality of children under 5 years was 3.88‰in 2013. [Conclusion] Congenital a-nomalies , birth asphyxia and accident death seriously threaten the lives of children under 5 years.We must strengthen neonatal screening , neonatal accidental death education , thus effectively reducing the mortality of children under 5.The fitting effect of GM(1, 1) on mortality rate of children under 5 is good and can be ap-plied for prediction .