CAJ | 학술논문

采用BCSD降尺度方法,根据黄河源区16个气象站基准期(1961-1990年)的逐日降水量、气温,最高气温和最低气温资料,对IPCCAR4中的20个GCM模式在A1 B情景下的气象资料进行降尺度研究,并简单论证了BCSD的降尺度效果及其结果的可信性。基于降尺度分析结果,预测在A1B情景下,黄河源区温度普遍升高,增幅约为0.032益/a,降水量呈现波动状微弱上升趋势,增幅约为0.50 mm/a,同时从流域空间分布上看,东南部降水和气温的增加效果显著,一定程度上可认为黄河源区东南部有暖湿化的演变趋势。
채용BCSD강척도방법,근거황하원구16개기상참기준기(1961-1990년)적축일강수량、기온,최고기온화최저기온자료,대IPCCAR4중적20개GCM모식재A1 B정경하적기상자료진행강척도연구,병간단론증료BCSD적강척도효과급기결과적가신성。기우강척도분석결과,예측재A1B정경하,황하원구온도보편승고,증폭약위0.032익/a,강수량정현파동상미약상승추세,증폭약위0.50 mm/a,동시종류역공간분포상간,동남부강수화기온적증가효과현저,일정정도상가인위황하원구동남부유난습화적연변추세。
The bias-corrected and spatially and temporally downscaled ( BCSD) method was used to downscale 20 GCM in IPCC AR4 in an A1 B scenario in the source region of the Yellow River based on the data of daily precipitation, daily temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature from 16 meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990 . The performance and the confidence of BCSD are demonstrated in brief. The downscaling results show that, in the future, in the source region of the Yellow River, the temperature will increase by 0. 032℃ per year and the precipitation will increase by 0. 50 mm per year, with fluctuations and a slightly increasing trend, in the A1B scenario. Meanwhile, the temperature and precipitation are increasing significantly in the southeastern area, indicating that the climate there is becoming warm and humid.