中国安全生产科学技术
中國安全生產科學技術
중국안전생산과학기술
JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2014年
5期
117-123
,共7页
飞行签派%贝叶斯网络%安全评估%事故模型%评价算法
飛行籤派%貝葉斯網絡%安全評估%事故模型%評價算法
비행첨파%패협사망락%안전평고%사고모형%평개산법
flight dispatch%Bayesian network%safety assessment%accident model%estimation algorithm
随着航空公司机队规模和航班数量不断增加，作为运输生产核心部门之一的飞行签派工作，对生产组织协调不得力或监控跟踪不及时所引发飞行事故成为当前突出的安全问题。分析由于飞行签派工作差错导致飞行事故的原因及可能引发的各项后果，查找出诱发该类事故各项因素，运用层次分析法建立飞行签派安全评估指标体系，建立基于贝叶斯网络的影响飞行签派各因素间的关系和相互作用，提出了故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的改进方法，基于构建的飞行签派安全评估贝叶斯网络模型，给出了求解顶事件发生后果概率、底事件重要度和事故发生最小割集的算法；最后将该算法应用于实例。
隨著航空公司機隊規模和航班數量不斷增加，作為運輸生產覈心部門之一的飛行籤派工作，對生產組織協調不得力或鑑控跟蹤不及時所引髮飛行事故成為噹前突齣的安全問題。分析由于飛行籤派工作差錯導緻飛行事故的原因及可能引髮的各項後果，查找齣誘髮該類事故各項因素，運用層次分析法建立飛行籤派安全評估指標體繫，建立基于貝葉斯網絡的影響飛行籤派各因素間的關繫和相互作用，提齣瞭故障樹嚮貝葉斯網絡轉化的改進方法，基于構建的飛行籤派安全評估貝葉斯網絡模型，給齣瞭求解頂事件髮生後果概率、底事件重要度和事故髮生最小割集的算法；最後將該算法應用于實例。
수착항공공사궤대규모화항반수량불단증가，작위운수생산핵심부문지일적비행첨파공작，대생산조직협조불득력혹감공근종불급시소인발비행사고성위당전돌출적안전문제。분석유우비행첨파공작차착도치비행사고적원인급가능인발적각항후과，사조출유발해류사고각항인소，운용층차분석법건립비행첨파안전평고지표체계，건립기우패협사망락적영향비행첨파각인소간적관계화상호작용，제출료고장수향패협사망락전화적개진방법，기우구건적비행첨파안전평고패협사망락모형，급출료구해정사건발생후과개솔、저사건중요도화사고발생최소할집적산법；최후장해산법응용우실례。
Accompany with the number of aircrafts and flights increasing , aviation operational control (AOC) as a core department of airline becomes more and more important .Because of ineffective organization-coordination and monitoring-following delayed in the airline operational control , it becomes an extrusive problem which has caused the resent flight accidents .Aiming at the complicated reasons of flight accidents , the relative factors inducing the accidents were found out .Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to build the safety assessment target system of air-lines operational control .Based on theory of Bayesian network and Fault tree transforming , the model of safety as-sessment on airlines operational control was put forward .The algorithm of solving the consequence probability of top incidents , the importance of bottom incidents and the minimum path gather of accident occurrence were brought for -ward.At last the model and the algorithm were used to actual example .
