CAJ | 학술논문

在层次结构显著、决策执行过程具有次序性的层次性决策中，为解决由决策主体给出的主观证据之间同时存在独立与相关2种关系的融合决策问题，结合该类决策的特征，提出一种能够规避管理者主观证据多次重复合成的融合决策方法，并通过去合成规则将相对简单的2个相关证据合成规则，拓展为更具普适性的多源相关证据融合规则，在此基础上按照由上至下、由内至外的次序，应用给出的相关证据融合规则和Dempster组合规则，构建适用于双层多源主观证据融合决策的方法步骤，并描述层次权重在决策过程中的目标导向作用。应用不同方法对同一决策问题进行数值模拟求解，分析结果表明，该方法与传统方法相比，更具科学有效性。
재층차결구현저、결책집행과정구유차서성적층차성결책중，위해결유결책주체급출적주관증거지간동시존재독립여상관2충관계적융합결책문제，결합해류결책적특정，제출일충능구규피관리자주관증거다차중복합성적융합결책방법，병통과거합성규칙장상대간단적2개상관증거합성규칙，탁전위경구보괄성적다원상관증거융합규칙，재차기출상안조유상지하、유내지외적차서，응용급출적상관증거융합규칙화Dempster조합규칙，구건괄용우쌍층다원주관증거융합결책적방법보취，병묘술층차권중재결책과정중적목표도향작용。응용불동방법대동일결책문제진행수치모의구해，분석결과표명，해방법여전통방법상비，경구과학유효성。
In order to solve the hierarchical fused decision problem of remarkable hierarchical structure and ordered decision implementation that independent and interrelated relationships co-exist in subjective evidences given by decision makers, the fusion mechanism is proposed combined with characteristics of hierarchical decision making to wipe out the influence of supervisors’ subjective evidence being repeatedly synthesized and the fusion rule adapted to only two interrelated evidences is expanded for more interrelated evidences according to the rule of de-synthesizing. After that, decision making steps for double-layer subjective fusion decision with multiple sources are constructed by the suggested integration rule for fusing interrelated evidences and the traditional Dempster combination rule following sequences of“up to down”and“inner to outer”, in which hierarchical weights are reflected. A decision problem is resolved by three methods, and the data comparison analysis shows the proposed method is scientific and efficient finally.