CAJ | 학술논문

当前，中国与俄罗斯亟需通过FTA夯实双方战略伙伴关系的经贸基础。文章利用WITS-SMART模型估算了中俄FTA的贸易、关税以及福利效应，结果显示：随着FTA框架下关税不断削减，中俄两国大多数产品部门都将从贸易规模扩张中受益，尽管两国的关税收入会出现下降，但是整体的经济福利都将获得提升。如果两国能够尽快实现零关税，那么两国之间的贸易往来会获得快速增长。因此，中俄两国需要从战略层面把握中俄FTA建设的重要意义，尽快推动中俄FTA谈判与建设。
당전，중국여아라사극수통과FTA항실쌍방전략화반관계적경무기출。문장이용WITS-SMART모형고산료중아FTA적무역、관세이급복리효응，결과현시：수착FTA광가하관세불단삭감，중아량국대다수산품부문도장종무역규모확장중수익，진관량국적관세수입회출현하강，단시정체적경제복리도장획득제승。여과량국능구진쾌실현령관세，나요량국지간적무역왕래회획득쾌속증장。인차，중아량국수요종전략층면파악중아FTA건설적중요의의，진쾌추동중아FTA담판여건설。
Currently,it is urgent for both China and Russia to consolidate the economic foundation of bilateral strategic part-nership through the FTA. Using the WITS-SMART model, the paper provides insights on trade, tariffs and welfare effects of China-Russia FTA. The results show that the majority of production sectors will benefit from the expansion of trade along with the continuous reduction of tariffs under the FTA framework. The overall economic welfare of China and Russia will increase re-gardless of the decline of two country’ s tariff revenues. If China and Russia can achieve zero tariff as soon as possible, the trade between the two countries will grow rapidly. Therefore, both China and Russia should realize the significances of Chi-na-Russian FTA and promote FTA negotiations at the strategic level,and ultimately reach and sign the FTA.