华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2014年
6期
27-30
,共4页
碳排放%驱动因素%锁定效应%解锁路径
碳排放%驅動因素%鎖定效應%解鎖路徑
탄배방%구동인소%쇄정효응%해쇄로경
carbon emissions%driving factors%lock-in effect%unlock path
文章基于STIRPAT模型和岭估计法，分析安徽制造业碳排放的驱动因素。结果显示，能源消费结构、人均制造业增加值、从业人数对碳排放存在正向作用，弹性系数分别为0.255、0.235和0.222；技术因素呈负向作用，弹性系数为-0.175。并且，安徽制造业碳排放集中于4个细分行业，总体上处于总量上升、强度下降的“相对解锁”状态，迫切需要提升能源利用率，调整细分行业结构，培育低碳制造园区。
文章基于STIRPAT模型和嶺估計法，分析安徽製造業碳排放的驅動因素。結果顯示，能源消費結構、人均製造業增加值、從業人數對碳排放存在正嚮作用，彈性繫數分彆為0.255、0.235和0.222；技術因素呈負嚮作用，彈性繫數為-0.175。併且，安徽製造業碳排放集中于4箇細分行業，總體上處于總量上升、彊度下降的“相對解鎖”狀態，迫切需要提升能源利用率，調整細分行業結構，培育低碳製造園區。
문장기우STIRPAT모형화령고계법，분석안휘제조업탄배방적구동인소。결과현시，능원소비결구、인균제조업증가치、종업인수대탄배방존재정향작용，탄성계수분별위0.255、0.235화0.222；기술인소정부향작용，탄성계수위-0.175。병차，안휘제조업탄배방집중우4개세분행업，총체상처우총량상승、강도하강적“상대해쇄”상태，박절수요제승능원이용솔，조정세분행업결구，배육저탄제조완구。
Based on STIRPAT model and ridge estimation method,the paper analyzes driving factors of carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. The results show that energy consumption structure, manufacturing value-add-ed per capita and number of employees have a positive effect on carbon emissions. The elastic coefficients of three factors are 0.255,0.235 and 0.222 respectively,while the technical factor plays a negative role,which is-0.213. Furthermore,carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province gather in four industry segments. Overall,carbon emissions are in“relatively unlock”state with the total amount increasing and the strength decreasing. It is very urgent to improve energy effi-ciency,adjust industrial structure and develop low-carbon manufacturing parks.
