工程地质学报
工程地質學報
공정지질학보
2014年
2期
255-262
,共8页
伍宇明%兰恒星%高星%李郎平
伍宇明%蘭恆星%高星%李郎平
오우명%란항성%고성%리랑평
台风暴雨型滑坡%台风地区%降雨阈值曲线%极值理论
檯風暴雨型滑坡%檯風地區%降雨閾值麯線%極值理論
태풍폭우형활파%태풍지구%강우역치곡선%겁치이론
Storm-induced landslides%Typhoon areas%Rainfall threshold curve%Extreme value theory
台风暴雨型滑坡具有群发性、规模小、爆发性强的特点，容易造成严重的人员伤亡和巨大的财产损失。本文应用极值理论分析，以极端降雨重现期的极大值作为标准并计算有效的降雨区间，通过统计分析，确定触发暴雨型滑坡的降雨阈值曲线。应用模型对福建地区台风暴雨型滑坡进行了分析，福建省3个灾害高发区为：南平-三明地区、泉州地区和宁德地区。南平-三明地区降雨阈值较高，但发生的滑坡数量较多，主要以3d的降雨为主；泉州地区小于3d的连续降雨和大于8d的连续降雨是触发该地滑坡的主要降雨区间；宁德地区对短期降雨较为敏感，滑坡主要由1d的降雨引起。比较分析研究表明，台风地区触发滑坡的降雨阈值要高于非台风地区。降雨型滑坡阈值主要受气候，地质和土壤厚度影响，气候因素为主控因素。
檯風暴雨型滑坡具有群髮性、規模小、爆髮性彊的特點，容易造成嚴重的人員傷亡和巨大的財產損失。本文應用極值理論分析，以極耑降雨重現期的極大值作為標準併計算有效的降雨區間，通過統計分析，確定觸髮暴雨型滑坡的降雨閾值麯線。應用模型對福建地區檯風暴雨型滑坡進行瞭分析，福建省3箇災害高髮區為：南平-三明地區、泉州地區和寧德地區。南平-三明地區降雨閾值較高，但髮生的滑坡數量較多，主要以3d的降雨為主；泉州地區小于3d的連續降雨和大于8d的連續降雨是觸髮該地滑坡的主要降雨區間；寧德地區對短期降雨較為敏感，滑坡主要由1d的降雨引起。比較分析研究錶明，檯風地區觸髮滑坡的降雨閾值要高于非檯風地區。降雨型滑坡閾值主要受氣候，地質和土壤厚度影響，氣候因素為主控因素。
태풍폭우형활파구유군발성、규모소、폭발성강적특점，용역조성엄중적인원상망화거대적재산손실。본문응용겁치이론분석，이겁단강우중현기적겁대치작위표준병계산유효적강우구간，통과통계분석，학정촉발폭우형활파적강우역치곡선。응용모형대복건지구태풍폭우형활파진행료분석，복건성3개재해고발구위：남평-삼명지구、천주지구화저덕지구。남평-삼명지구강우역치교고，단발생적활파수량교다，주요이3d적강우위주；천주지구소우3d적련속강우화대우8d적련속강우시촉발해지활파적주요강우구간；저덕지구대단기강우교위민감，활파주요유1d적강우인기。비교분석연구표명，태풍지구촉발활파적강우역치요고우비태풍지구。강우형활파역치주요수기후，지질화토양후도영향，기후인소위주공인소。
Strong rainstorm can induce a burst of large number of small scale landslides.In typhoon areas,storm-induced landslides pose a high risk to the human lives and properties.It is therefore of great significance to study the occurrence of the landslides in typhoon areas.In this study,the critical duration of rainfall is estimated according to the reactivation period of extreme rainfall calculated using the Extreme Value Theory(EVT).Then,a threshold curve of the storm-induced landslides in typhoon areas is obtained based on a statistical approach.A typical typhoon region,the Fujian Province in the southeast China,is taken as a study area.Three typical regions with high occurrence of landslides are detected in the Fujian Province:the Nanping-Sanming region,the Quanzhou region and the Ningde region.It is found that,although the rainfall threshold of the Nanping-Sanming region is relatively higher,landslides happen more frequently and are mainly caused by continuous rainfall in three days.The Quanzhou region is susceptible to the influence of both short-term(<3 days)and long-term(>8 days)continuous heavy rainfall.The landslides in the Ningde Region are mainly caused by continuous rainfall in one day.This comparative study in different areas shows that the threshold of rainfall-induced landslide is affected by complex factors dominated with climate,geological environment and soil depth.The threshold of rainfall-induced landslide in typhoon areas is higher than that in non-typhoon areas,since the climate is the primary controlling factor of the threshold of rainfall-induced landslides.
