CAJ | 학술논문

利用新疆101个气象站1961-2010年的逐日平均气温和逐年极端最低气温资料，使用线性趋势和Mann - Kendall 法对最冷月1月平均气温、年极端最低气温、冬季负积温和越冬期日数等冬季热量要素变化趋势、突变特征进行分析，采用混合插值法，在 ArcGIS 平台上完成基于数字高程模型（DEM）数据的各热量要素多年平均值和突变前后变化量的空间分布式模拟。结果表明：（1）新疆1月平均气温、年极端最低气温总体呈现“南疆高，北疆低；平原和盆地高，山区低”的特点，冬季负积温和越冬期日数总体呈现“南疆少，北疆多；平原和盆地少，山区多”的分布格局。（2）在全球变暖背景下，1961-2010年新疆冬季热量资源呈明显的增多趋势，并且1月平均气温和年极端最低气温分别于1979年和1980年发生了突变性的升高，冬季负积温和越冬期日数分别于1986年和1998年发生了突变性的减少。突变年前后，1月平均气温和年极端最低气温上升幅度的空间分布总体呈“从东南至西北递增”的格局，冬季负积温减少幅度的空间分布呈“由南向北递增”的特点，越冬期日数减少幅度的空间分布呈“南疆大，北疆小；盆地大，天山和阿勒泰山区小”的格局。
이용신강101개기상참1961-2010년적축일평균기온화축년겁단최저기온자료，사용선성추세화Mann - Kendall 법대최랭월1월평균기온、년겁단최저기온、동계부적온화월동기일수등동계열량요소변화추세、돌변특정진행분석，채용혼합삽치법，재 ArcGIS 평태상완성기우수자고정모형（DEM）수거적각열량요소다년평균치화돌변전후변화량적공간분포식모의。결과표명：（1）신강1월평균기온、년겁단최저기온총체정현“남강고，북강저；평원화분지고，산구저”적특점，동계부적온화월동기일수총체정현“남강소，북강다；평원화분지소，산구다”적분포격국。（2）재전구변난배경하，1961-2010년신강동계열량자원정명현적증다추세，병차1월평균기온화년겁단최저기온분별우1979년화1980년발생료돌변성적승고，동계부적온화월동기일수분별우1986년화1998년발생료돌변성적감소。돌변년전후，1월평균기온화년겁단최저기온상승폭도적공간분포총체정“종동남지서북체증”적격국，동계부적온감소폭도적공간분포정“유남향북체증”적특점，월동기일수감소폭도적공간분포정“남강대，북강소；분지대，천산화아륵태산구소”적격국。
Using the daily mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature data from 101 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010 in Xinjiang ,were analyzed the changing trend and abruptly changing characteristic of heat element in winter for the January mean temperature ,yearly extreme minimum temperature ,accumulated negative temper-ature and the day numbers in winter by using the linear tendency method and Mann - Kendall method ,and by using the mixed model ,have finished the spacial distribution simulation for the average value in multi-years of each heat element in winter and the variation before and after abrupt change based on the digit elevation model (DEM) on the platform of the ArcGIS .The results showed that :(1) January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature in Xinjiang were showed the characteristic of higher in southern Xinjiang ,lower in northern Xinjiang ;Higher in plain and valley , and lower in mountain areas ;The accumulated negative temperature and the day numbers in winter were showed the dis -tribution style as less in southern Xinjiang ,more in northern Xinjiang ;And less in plain and valley ,more in mountain areas .(2) Under the background of global warming ,the heat resource in winter of Xinjiang was showed a significant in -creasing trend during 1961 to 2010 ,also January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature occurred abruptly increase in 1979 and 1980 respectively ,but the accumulated negative temperature and the day numbers in winter were abruptly decreased in 1986 and 1998 respectively .Before and after the abruptly change year ,the spatial distribution of rise range for January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature totally assumed the pattern as in -crease from southeast to northwest ,the spatial distribution of reduced range for accumulated negative temperature assumed the characteristic as rise from south to north ,and the spatial distribution of reduced range for the day numbers in winter assumed the pattern as more in southern Xinjiang ,less in northern Xinjiang ,plains ,and more in plains and basins area , less in Tianshan Mountain and Altai Mountains areas .