干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2014年
2期
33-39
,共7页
王爱辉%刘晓燕%贾纳提·吐拉尔汗%黄霄霞
王愛輝%劉曉燕%賈納提·吐拉爾汗%黃霄霞
왕애휘%류효연%가납제·토랍이한%황소하
鄯善县%气候变化%累积距平%线性趋势
鄯善縣%氣候變化%纍積距平%線性趨勢
선선현%기후변화%루적거평%선성추세
Shanshan County%climatic variation%accumulated anomaly%linear trend
根据鄯善县1971-2010年气温、降水量、风速等资料，利用线性趋势法和距平及累积距平等方法对鄯善县绿洲气候变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）近40 a 鄯善县年平均气温呈波动上升趋势，线性拟合气候倾向率为0．49℃?10a -1，各季变暖趋势相同，春夏秋冬四季平均气温线性拟合气候倾向率分别为0．35、0．33、0．4℃?10a -1及0．43℃?10a -1。年平均最高气温缓慢上升，年平均最低气温增温明显。（2）近40 a 降水量总体为波动减少趋势，线性拟合气候倾向率为-0．55 mm?10a -1，夏季和秋季降水量减少明显。（3）近40 a 平均风速总体呈缓慢减小趋势，线性拟合气候倾向率为-0．05 m?s -1?10a -1。综合气温与降水变化状况，鄯善县绿洲气候呈暖干化发展趋势，气温与降水存在突变情况，年代分布有明显的阶段性、季节差异性特征。
根據鄯善縣1971-2010年氣溫、降水量、風速等資料，利用線性趨勢法和距平及纍積距平等方法對鄯善縣綠洲氣候變化進行分析。結果錶明：（1）近40 a 鄯善縣年平均氣溫呈波動上升趨勢，線性擬閤氣候傾嚮率為0．49℃?10a -1，各季變暖趨勢相同，春夏鞦鼕四季平均氣溫線性擬閤氣候傾嚮率分彆為0．35、0．33、0．4℃?10a -1及0．43℃?10a -1。年平均最高氣溫緩慢上升，年平均最低氣溫增溫明顯。（2）近40 a 降水量總體為波動減少趨勢，線性擬閤氣候傾嚮率為-0．55 mm?10a -1，夏季和鞦季降水量減少明顯。（3）近40 a 平均風速總體呈緩慢減小趨勢，線性擬閤氣候傾嚮率為-0．05 m?s -1?10a -1。綜閤氣溫與降水變化狀況，鄯善縣綠洲氣候呈暖榦化髮展趨勢，氣溫與降水存在突變情況，年代分佈有明顯的階段性、季節差異性特徵。
근거선선현1971-2010년기온、강수량、풍속등자료，이용선성추세법화거평급루적거평등방법대선선현록주기후변화진행분석。결과표명：（1）근40 a 선선현년평균기온정파동상승추세，선성의합기후경향솔위0．49℃?10a -1，각계변난추세상동，춘하추동사계평균기온선성의합기후경향솔분별위0．35、0．33、0．4℃?10a -1급0．43℃?10a -1。년평균최고기온완만상승，년평균최저기온증온명현。（2）근40 a 강수량총체위파동감소추세，선성의합기후경향솔위-0．55 mm?10a -1，하계화추계강수량감소명현。（3）근40 a 평균풍속총체정완만감소추세，선성의합기후경향솔위-0．05 m?s -1?10a -1。종합기온여강수변화상황，선선현록주기후정난간화발전추세，기온여강수존재돌변정황，년대분포유명현적계단성、계절차이성특정。
Based on the information of temperature ,precipitation and wind speed etc from 1971 to 2010 of Shanshan County ,using the methods of linear trend and accumulated anomaly ,have carried out the analysis of climatic change in oasis of Shanshan County .The results indicated that :(1) The annual mean temperature has assumed a undulated in-crease trend in near 40 years ,the climatic tendency rate by the linear fitting was 0 .49 ℃ /decade ,the trend changing warm in each season was same ,the mean temperature of the climatic tendency rate by the linear fitting in spring ,sum-mer ,autumn and winter was 0 .35 ℃ /decade ,0 .33 ℃ /decade ,0 .4 ℃ /decade and 0 .43 ℃ /decad respectively .The an-nual mean maximum temperature was slowly risen ,the annual mean minimal temperature was obvious warm .(2) The an-nual gross precipitation was a undulated decrease trend during 40 years ,the climatic tendency rate by the linear fitting was - 0 .55 mm/decade ,the precipitation reduce was obvious in summer and autumn .(3) The annual mean wind veloc-ity was assumed a slowly decrease trend during 40 years ,and the climatic tendency rates by the linear fitting was -0 .05 m/s/decade .Synthesized the change situation of the temperature and precipitation ,The oasis climate has assumed a warm and dry developing trend in Shanshan County ,the temperature and precipitation existed a mutation ,also the years distribution had the obvious period change and seasonal differences .
