CAJ | 학술논문

在分析最严格水资源管理“三条红线”研究现状的基础上，构建评价指标体系，采用改进熵权法确定评价指标权重，建立模糊物元模型，对区域最严格水资源管理水平进行评价。以南京市高淳区为例，对其最严格水资源管理水平进行评价。结果表明，高淳区2012年最严格水资源管理处于Ⅱ级水平，预测2015年和2020年分别处于Ⅱ级和Ⅰ级水平，评价结果与《高淳区水资源管理现代化建设实施方案》相一致。对指标权重进行灵敏度分析，发现改进模糊物元分析法稳定性较好，评价结果较可信。因此，基于改进熵权的模糊物元分析法对区域最严格水资源管理评价适用性较强，是一种最严格水资源管理评价的新方法。
재분석최엄격수자원관리“삼조홍선”연구현상적기출상，구건평개지표체계，채용개진적권법학정평개지표권중，건립모호물원모형，대구역최엄격수자원관리수평진행평개。이남경시고순구위례，대기최엄격수자원관리수평진행평개。결과표명，고순구2012년최엄격수자원관리처우Ⅱ급수평，예측2015년화2020년분별처우Ⅱ급화Ⅰ급수평，평개결과여《고순구수자원관리현대화건설실시방안》상일치。대지표권중진행령민도분석，발현개진모호물원분석법은정성교호，평개결과교가신。인차，기우개진적권적모호물원분석법대구역최엄격수자원관리평개괄용성교강，시일충최엄격수자원관리평개적신방법。
Based on analysis of the current research on the “Three Red Lines” of the strictest water resources management system , we built an assessment index system , used the improved entropy method to determine the weights of assessment indices , and established a fuzzy matter-element model to evaluate the strictest regional water resources management system , using the Gaochun District of Nanjing City as a case study .The assessment results show that the water resources management of the Gaochun District was at level II in the year 2012 , and will be at level II and level I in the years 2015 and 2020 , respectively , which is consistent with the Gaochun District Water Resources Management Modernization Implementation Program .Sensitivity analysis of index weights shows that the proposed model is highly stable and produces reliable assessment results .Thus, the improved entropy fuzzy matter-element analysis method is highly adaptable to the assessment of the strictest regional water resources management , and can be a new method for the assessment of the strictest water resources management .