CAJ | 학술논문

南海夏季风爆发的重要特征之一是标志着中国雨季的开始。准确预测南海夏季风的爆发时间对中国的降水预报具有重要参考意义。目前国内外大多采用南海低层850 hPa高度区域动力学和热力学方法来判断南海夏季风爆发时间，这种判断方法具有普遍适用性，但在南海夏季风爆发期间，受台风（或热带低压系统）和副热带高压异常位置的影响，利用低层区域动力学和热力学方法来确定南海夏季风爆发时间似乎略显不足。综合大气环流方法和副热带高压异常变化特征分析等方法，客观确定了2012年南海夏季风爆发时间，为2012年我国汛期降水特点提供参考依据。最后简单回顾了采用印度洋海气热通量预测南海夏季风爆发时间的可行性，为南海夏季风爆发时间的深入研究及其机理探讨提供了又一新的途径和方法。
남해하계풍폭발적중요특정지일시표지착중국우계적개시。준학예측남해하계풍적폭발시간대중국적강수예보구유중요삼고의의。목전국내외대다채용남해저층850 hPa고도구역동역학화열역학방법래판단남해하계풍폭발시간，저충판단방법구유보편괄용성，단재남해하계풍폭발기간，수태풍（혹열대저압계통）화부열대고압이상위치적영향，이용저층구역동역학화열역학방법래학정남해하계풍폭발시간사호략현불족。종합대기배류방법화부열대고압이상변화특정분석등방법，객관학정료2012년남해하계풍폭발시간，위2012년아국신기강수특점제공삼고의거。최후간단회고료채용인도양해기열통량예측남해하계풍폭발시간적가행성，위남해하계풍폭발시간적심입연구급기궤리탐토제공료우일신적도경화방법。
The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) indicates the beginning of the rainy season in China. So the exact forecast of the onset of SCSSM is very important to the prediction of the precipitation of China. The method using regional dynamics and thermodynamics of the South China Sea at lower 850 hPa to judge the onset time of the SCSSM is common at home and abroad so far. It is a method of universal applicability. Under the influence of typhoon(or tropical low pressure system)and the abnormal position of subtropical high pressure during the SCSSM, this method seems to be insufficient. In this paper, the authors objectively determined the onset time of the SCSSM in 2012 that was first pentad in June by using atmospheric circulation method and analysis of subtropical high abnormal variation characteristics and so on. Lastly, we briefly overviewed the feasibility of using the Indian Ocean air-sea heat flux to predict the onset time of SCSSM,which is a new way and method for the further study and the mechanism discussion of the onset time of the SCSSM.