CAJ | 학술논문

旱灾是我国主要的自然灾害之一。近年来，我国干旱灾害发生频繁，对经济社会造成的影响不断加剧。加强旱情监测，提高旱情综合评判能力，探索旱情预警方法等，显得十分必要和紧迫。目前，我国旱情监测工作相对薄弱，旱情预测预报起步较晚，旱情预警尚处于研究和探索阶段。本文结合吉林省旱情预警模型研究的有关成果，探讨预警指标、预测模型、预警综合指数等主要技术问题的创建思路，为旱情预警系统研究提供借鉴和参考作用。
한재시아국주요적자연재해지일。근년래，아국간한재해발생빈번，대경제사회조성적영향불단가극。가강한정감측，제고한정종합평판능력，탐색한정예경방법등，현득십분필요화긴박。목전，아국한정감측공작상대박약，한정예측예보기보교만，한정예경상처우연구화탐색계단。본문결합길림성한정예경모형연구적유관성과，탐토예경지표、예측모형、예경종합지수등주요기술문제적창건사로，위한정예경계통연구제공차감화삼고작용。
Drought is one of China’s major natural disasters.In recent years,the impact of frequent occurrence of drought on economic sociality is growing.it is very necessary and urgent to strengthen drought monitoring , droughtcomprehensive evaluation to improve the ability to explore the drought early warning methods.At pre-sent,China’s drought monitoring work is relatively weak,and the drought forecasting is a late start,the drought warning is still in theresearch and exploration phase.In this paper ,combined with Jilin relevant outcomes of drought early warning model,explores early warning indicators,forecasting models,early warning Composite Index and other major technicalproblems to create idea for drought early warning system ,it provides reference to the role of research.