CAJ | 학술논문

研究基于碳排放测算模型，从滁州农业生产中4个主要方面的碳源，测算了滁州2000-2009年农业碳排放量，并在此基础上进一步通过Kaya恒等式变形对滁州农业碳排放影响因素进行分解。研究结果表明：自2000年以来滁州农业碳排放总量和碳排放效率总体呈现上升态势，碳排放强度呈现缓慢下降趋势；生产模式因素、生产资料效率因素对碳排放量具有一定的抑制作用，但效果不够显著，分别累计实现15．66％、97．05％的碳减排；而经济规模因素、人口规模因素则对农业碳排放具有较强推动作用，分别累计产生195．86％、16．85％的碳增量。
연구기우탄배방측산모형，종저주농업생산중4개주요방면적탄원，측산료저주2000-2009년농업탄배방량，병재차기출상진일보통과Kaya항등식변형대저주농업탄배방영향인소진행분해。연구결과표명：자2000년이래저주농업탄배방총량화탄배방효솔총체정현상승태세，탄배방강도정현완만하강추세；생산모식인소、생산자료효솔인소대탄배방량구유일정적억제작용，단효과불구현저，분별루계실현15．66％、97．05％적탄감배；이경제규모인소、인구규모인소칙대농업탄배방구유교강추동작용，분별루계산생195．86％、16．85％적탄증량。
Based on four kinds of main carbon sources from agricultural production ,this research using the methods of carbon emission model calculates Chuzhou agricultural carbon emission from 2000 to 2009 .T hen ,all the factors affecting the carbon emission are decomposed by reasonable conversion of Kaya equation .The result shows that :there is an increasing trend in agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon emissions efficiency ,and an decreasing trend in the agricultural carbon emissions in-tensity ;the factors of agricultural production model and efficiency can restrain the carbon emission ,but the effect is not obvious ;Compared with those in 2000 ,in 2009 the model factor cut 15 .66% carbon e-mission and the efficiency factor cut 97 .05% ;in contrast , the economic scale factor and population scale factor played an active role in agricultural carbon emission ,w hich increase respectively 195 .86%and 16 .85% carbon emission .