CAJ | 학술논문

我国短期气候预测技术进展
아국단기기후예측기술진전

万方数据

应用气象学报應用氣象學報 응용기상학보
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY
2013年 6期 641-655 ,共15页

贾小龙%陈丽娟%高辉%王永光%柯宗建%刘长征%宋文玲%吴统文%封国林%赵振国%李维京

가소룡%진려연%고휘%왕영광%가종건%류장정%송문령%오통문%봉국림%조진국%리유경

气候预测%气候模式%解释应用%东亚季风氣候預測%氣候模式%解釋應用%東亞季風
기후예측%기후모식%해석응용%동아계풍
climate prediction%climate model%interpretation%East Asia Monsoon

经过近60年的发展，我国短期气候预测技术和方法也有了长足进步。近年来，一些新的预报技术和机理认识不断应用于短期气候预测业务。ARGO海洋观测资料的使用大大提高了业务模式的预测技巧，新一代气候预测模式系统已经投入准业务化运行，研发了多种模式降尺度释用技术，多模式气候预测产品解释应用集成系统（MODES）和动力-统计结合的季节预测系统（FODAS）逐渐应用于业务中，大气季节内振荡（MJO）逐步在延伸期预报中得到应用。近年来，对全球海洋、北极海冰、欧亚积雪、南半球环流系统对东亚季风影响的新认识也不断引入到短期气候预测业务中。这些新技术和新认识的应用极大提高了我国短期气候预测的业务能力。
경과근60년적발전，아국단기기후예측기술화방법야유료장족진보。근년래，일사신적예보기술화궤리인식불단응용우단기기후예측업무。ARGO해양관측자료적사용대대제고료업무모식적예측기교，신일대기후예측모식계통이경투입준업무화운행，연발료다충모식강척도석용기술，다모식기후예측산품해석응용집성계통（MODES）화동력-통계결합적계절예측계통（FODAS）축점응용우업무중，대기계절내진탕（MJO）축보재연신기예보중득도응용。근년래，대전구해양、북겁해빙、구아적설、남반구배류계통대동아계풍영향적신인식야불단인입도단기기후예측업무중。저사신기술화신인식적응용겁대제고료아국단기기후예측적업무능력。
Through the past 60-year development,the short-range climate prediction operation has made great progress in China in terms of the technology and methodology,undergoing the stages from the simple ex-periential statistic methods to numerical model.Especially in recent years,many objective prediction tech-niques and methods are well developed and applied in real-time operation.Meanwhile,many improved un-derstanding and new knowledge of the climate system are also gradually used by climate forecasters. <br> The ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography )global ocean data are applied in the global ocean data assimilation systems in NCC (NCC_GODAS),which enhances the monitoring and analy-zing capability for the global ocean.The NCC_GODAS is integrated with coupled atmosphere-ocean mod-els of NCC_CGCM,which increases the forecast skills for the short-term climate prediction.ARGO data are also applied for improving physical parameterization schemes in oceanic models,and the model capabili-ty of describing the real oceans and forecasting El Ni?no/Southern Oscillation is improved.The second-gen-eration short-range climate forecast model,which upgrades many aspects of the resolution and physical process,exhibits a higher prediction skill comparing to the first-generation system.A preliminary evalua-tion indicates that the second-generation system shows a certain capability in predicting the pentad,ten-day,monthly,seasonal and inter-annual climate variability.The downscaling methods based on dynamical climate model are extensively used in operation including monthly prediction,seasonal prediction and ex-treme climate event prediction,improving the prediction skill of model production.Due to the limited pre-dictability of a single model,multi-model ensemble (MME)is efficiently employed.Based on four opera-tional dynamical models from NCC,NCEP,ECMWF and TCC,a multi-model ensemble system (MODES) is developed in NCC in 2011,in which downscaling technique is introduced and added to the ensemble pre-diction system.At present,this forecast system can issue monthly and seasonal ensemble prediction prod-ucts and is applied by regional climate center.Based on the dynamical-statistical integration forecasting method,a forecasting system for seasonal precipitation (FODAS1 .0)is developed,which has already been in quasi-operational use,showing stable prediction skill.The application of the intra-seasonal oscillation in the operational extended range forecast has made a great progress including that a MJO monitoring,predic-tion and application operational system is built up,and several forecast methods based on the intra-season-al oscillation are applied.New knowledge and research achievements are gradually introduced into opera-tion by forecaster,for example,in addition to the sea surface temperature (SST)in the equatorial mid-east Pacific,the SST in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean are also seriously considered.In addition,the sea ice,snow cover over the Eurasia and the climate system in the Southern Hemisphere are also consid-ered as the important impact factors in seasonal prediction.