CAJ | 학술논문

在遥感技术（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术支持下，通过对南通市区2003年、2005年、2007年三期中巴地球资源卫星CBERS遥感影像数据进行处理，并通过对处理后的图像进行非监督分类获得了南通市三期土地利用类型图和不同土地利用类型的面积数据，之后通过对三期土地利用类型数据进行叠加分析，得到了南通市区土地利用类型转移矩阵，计算了各种地类的变化率，并对未来南通市区土地利用变化情况做出了预测，结果表明：1.南通市土地变化总体呈现出建设用地持续快速增长，耕地显著减少的趋势；2.导致这种变化的直接诱因则是南通城市化进程加快，经济发展迅速，建筑用地正在不断的取代耕地和其他用地；3.如果以当前的变化模式稳定延续下去，在2012年后很短时间内南通市区建设用地面积将占全区总面积的50%以上，同时耕地面积会进一步大幅下降，土地非农化的趋势将更加明显。
재요감기술（RS）여지리신식계통（GIS）기술지지하，통과대남통시구2003년、2005년、2007년삼기중파지구자원위성CBERS요감영상수거진행처리，병통과대처리후적도상진행비감독분류획득료남통시삼기토지이용류형도화불동토지이용류형적면적수거，지후통과대삼기토지이용류형수거진행첩가분석，득도료남통시구토지이용류형전이구진，계산료각충지류적변화솔，병대미래남통시구토지이용변화정황주출료예측，결과표명：1.남통시토지변화총체정현출건설용지지속쾌속증장，경지현저감소적추세；2.도치저충변화적직접유인칙시남통성시화진정가쾌，경제발전신속，건축용지정재불단적취대경지화기타용지；3.여과이당전적변화모식은정연속하거，재2012년후흔단시간내남통시구건설용지면적장점전구총면적적50%이상，동시경지면적회진일보대폭하강，토지비농화적추세장경가명현。
Based on the RS and GIS, the research area's land use data were extracted from the remote sensing imagery, which were acquired by CBERS in 2003, 2005 and 2007. Then by doing a over layer analysis on three period, the spatial and temporal patterns of various land use types over the study area from 2003 to 2007 were examined and the major changing land use types and their transfer between each other were explored. Results show that:(1) The area of the construction land was increasing rapidly in past few years, but the area of farm land was decreasing signif-icantly; (2) The main reason for this change is the quickly urban-ization of Nantong, which was making more and more farm land and other types land change to the construction land; (3) The con-struction land area will make up more than 50% of the total area of the Nantong city and the area of farm land will be further de-crease dramatically, if the current change mode continued stably.