CAJ | 학술논문

对风电场输出功率进行预测是保证大规模风电集中并网后电力系统安全稳定运行的有效手段。提出了一种基于天气分型的风电功率预测算法，以数值天气预报(numerical weather prediction，NWP)中的风速向量和压力日变化为基础，采用主成分分析对样本进行降维处理，以聚类分析的方法对天气类型进行分类，针对不同的天气类型分别建立预测模型，并与单一预测模型进行对比。研究结果表明，主成分分析结合聚类分析的方法可实现对天气现象的有效分类；对于较为稳定的天气现象，聚类模型较单一模型的预测精度提高显著，而对于不稳定的天气现象，聚类模型预测精度提高有限；对总体样本而言，基于天气分型的预测方法较常规方法精度提高2%以上。
대풍전장수출공솔진행예측시보증대규모풍전집중병망후전력계통안전은정운행적유효수단。제출료일충기우천기분형적풍전공솔예측산법，이수치천기예보(numerical weather prediction，NWP)중적풍속향량화압력일변화위기출，채용주성분분석대양본진행강유처리，이취류분석적방법대천기류형진행분류，침대불동적천기류형분별건립예측모형，병여단일예측모형진행대비。연구결과표명，주성분분석결합취류분석적방법가실현대천기현상적유효분류；대우교위은정적천기현상，취류모형교단일모형적예측정도제고현저，이대우불은정적천기현상，취류모형예측정도제고유한；대총체양본이언，기우천기분형적예측방법교상규방법정도제고2%이상。
It is an effective means to predict the output power of wind farms for ensuring secure and stable operation of power grid concentratedly connected with large-scale wind farms. A whether typing based wind power prediction algorithm is proposed. Based on wind speed vector in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and daily atomospheric pressure and using principal component analysis, the proposed algorithm performs dimensionality reduction for samples and classifies weather types by clustering analysis, and different prediction models are established respectively according to different whether types and compared with single prediction model. Research results show that using the method combining principal component analysis with clustering analysis the weather phenomena can be effectively classified; for more stable whether phenomena the prediction result by clustering model is far more accurate than that by single model; for instable whether phenomena, limited improvement of prediction accuracy by clustering model can be attained;as for overall samples, the accuracy improvement by whether typing based prediction method can reach to 2% and more than traditional prediction method.