CAJ | 학술논문

为了揭示配电网可靠性的概率分布特征和内在随机变化规律，提出了配电网可靠性概率分布的解析计算模型和非参数核密度估计算法。考虑元件工作和修复时间为指数及非指数分布，分别从系统级和节点层对配电网可靠性指标采用随机函数进行解析表征，再进一步结合非参数核密度估计技术，实现了可靠性指标随机函数表达式的概率分布计算。其中，计及元件工作和修复时间为非指数分布可使评估结果更接近工程实际。通过对 RBTS-BUS6测试系统的算例分析，验证了所述方法的有效性。
위료게시배전망가고성적개솔분포특정화내재수궤변화규률，제출료배전망가고성개솔분포적해석계산모형화비삼수핵밀도고계산법。고필원건공작화수복시간위지수급비지수분포，분별종계통급화절점층대배전망가고성지표채용수궤함수진행해석표정，재진일보결합비삼수핵밀도고계기술，실현료가고성지표수궤함수표체식적개솔분포계산。기중，계급원건공작화수복시간위비지수분포가사평고결과경접근공정실제。통과대 RBTS-BUS6측시계통적산례분석，험증료소술방법적유효성。
An analytical model and non-parametric kernel density estimation approach are proposed for probability distribution calculation of distribution system reliability indices.In view of the fact that the time for work and repair of the system components is exponentially and non-exponentially distributed,analytical characterization for the reliability indices of the distribution network is conducted from the system level and the nodal layer using the random function, respectively. Furthermore,by referring to the non-parametric kernel density estimation technology,the probability distribution calculation is implemented for the expression of the reliability indices random function.With this method,it can be seen that taking into account that the time for work and repair of components will make the estimation results closer to engineering practice. Simulation results of RBTS-BUS6 system show that the proposed method is effective.