CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用STR模型考察了我国2000-2011年间货币供应量、利率与物价间的关系。研究表明，货币供应量和利率对物价的影响都是非线性的，其中货币供应量的影响是正向的，而且在不同经济状态下影响程度不同，在高利率水平下影响更突出；利率低时对物价的影响是负向的，此时加息是治理通货膨胀的有效手段，但当利率水平过高时，受制于“成本渠道”效应的影响，提高利率将进一步加剧通胀压力。因此，央行调控物价时应充分考虑所处的经济状态，合理选择两种不同的调控方式，以取得预期调控效果。
본문이용STR모형고찰료아국2000-2011년간화폐공응량、리솔여물개간적관계。연구표명，화폐공응량화리솔대물개적영향도시비선성적，기중화폐공응량적영향시정향적，이차재불동경제상태하영향정도불동，재고리솔수평하영향경돌출；리솔저시대물개적영향시부향적，차시가식시치리통화팽창적유효수단，단당리솔수평과고시，수제우“성본거도”효응적영향，제고리솔장진일보가극통창압력。인차，앙행조공물개시응충분고필소처적경제상태，합리선택량충불동적조공방식，이취득예기조공효과。
This paper studies the relationship among money supply, interest rate and price in China from 2000 to 2011 by using STR model. The result shows that money supply and interest rate have always had a non-linear effect on price and the effect of money supply is positive. The level of impact is different under different economic environments. The impact is more significant when the interest rate is high. The impact of interest rate on price is nonlinear,too. But its impact is passive when the interest rate is low, so it is reasonable to raise interest rate to control inflation. Howev-er,when interest rate is very high and it is constrained by the effect of“cost channel”,raising interest rate will further exacerbate the inflation pressure. Therefore,when regulating the price,the central bank should take the economic situ-ation into account and choose two kinds of regulatory instruments reasonably to control the price level as it is expected.