CAJ | 학술논문

根据1988-2012年安徽省入境旅游相关统计数据，通过协整检验、Granger因果检验等方法对安徽省入境旅游与当地经济增长关系进行研究，并建立两者间的“推拉效应”模型.结果表明：①安徽省入境旅游与当地经济增长存在长期稳定的因果关系：经济每增长1个百分点，入境旅游就增长1．828个百分点；国际旅游外汇收入每增长1个百分点，推动安徽地区生产总值增加0．481个百分点，地区经济对入境旅游发展的拉动作用更加明显.②安徽省入境旅游消费水平偏低，消费结构高级化指数小于100，入境旅游发展对地区经济的推动作用没有很好地发挥出来，因此刺激入境旅游发展仍是今后安徽省旅游业发展的重点.
근거1988-2012년안휘성입경여유상관통계수거，통과협정검험、Granger인과검험등방법대안휘성입경여유여당지경제증장관계진행연구，병건립량자간적“추랍효응”모형.결과표명：①안휘성입경여유여당지경제증장존재장기은정적인과관계：경제매증장1개백분점，입경여유취증장1．828개백분점；국제여유외회수입매증장1개백분점，추동안휘지구생산총치증가0．481개백분점，지구경제대입경여유발전적랍동작용경가명현.②안휘성입경여유소비수평편저，소비결구고급화지수소우100，입경여유발전대지구경제적추동작용몰유흔호지발휘출래，인차자격입경여유발전잉시금후안휘성여유업발전적중점.
According to the 1988-2012 inbound tourism statistics of Anhui Province,by using methods such as Cointegration,Granger causality test,we studied the relationship between tourism and local economic growth in Anhui Province,and establish the“push-pull effect” model between them. Results indicates that:①inbound tourism of Anhui Province exists long-term stability of causal relationship with local economic growth;if economy increases 1%,inbound tourism would increase 1.828%;if international tourism exchange income increases 1%,Anhui area production worth would be promoted to increase 0.481%;we concluded that area economic have more obvious promoting function on inbound tourism development.②The inbound tourism consumption in Anhui Province is in a low level,and the consumption structure upgrading index is less than 100,which meant that the promotion of inbound tourism on economic development is not very good developed,hence,stimulating the development of inbound tourism is still the focus of future tourism development in Anhui Province.