CAJ | 학술논문

针对常用的水文水资源不确定性分析理论的不足，文章从方法论和实证角度阐述了基于集对分析的水文水资源系统分析计算方法、预测方法、评价方法及决策分析方法等的理论基础。结果表明，采用根据实际水文水资源不确定性系统的背景分析构建集对和联系数，建立基于联系数的数学模型和解析基于联系数的数学模型这一水文水资源集对分析的方法论，综合分析处理水文水资源系统中的各种不确定性问题是可行和有效的，深入开展基于集对分析的水文水资源系统分析、预测、评价、决策分析、优化、模拟、推理和控制研究，既可进一步认识和处理水文水资源不确定性系统的复杂特征，也有助于丰富、发展和完善水文水资源不确定性分析理论，是水文水资源学和集对分析研究的新发展方向，在水资源系统脆弱性分析、水旱灾害风险评估等方面具有广泛应用前景。
침대상용적수문수자원불학정성분석이론적불족，문장종방법론화실증각도천술료기우집대분석적수문수자원계통분석계산방법、예측방법、평개방법급결책분석방법등적이론기출。결과표명，채용근거실제수문수자원불학정성계통적배경분석구건집대화련계수，건립기우련계수적수학모형화해석기우련계수적수학모형저일수문수자원집대분석적방법론，종합분석처리수문수자원계통중적각충불학정성문제시가행화유효적，심입개전기우집대분석적수문수자원계통분석、예측、평개、결책분석、우화、모의、추리화공제연구，기가진일보인식화처리수문수자원불학정성계통적복잡특정，야유조우봉부、발전화완선수문수자원불학정성분석이론，시수문수자원학화집대분석연구적신발전방향，재수자원계통취약성분석、수한재해풍험평고등방면구유엄범응용전경。
In order to overcome the shortcomings of the common uncertainty analysis theories of hydro-logical and water resource system ,the theoretical foundation of the main set pair analysis methods for hydrological and water resource systems is discussed from the perspective of methodology and empiri-cal research ,such as analysis and computation methods ,prediction methods ,evaluation methods and decision-making analysis methods .T he results show that applying the methodology of set pair analy-sis to the hydrological and water resource systems is both feasible and effective ,which consists of con-structing set pair and connection number according to the background analysis of the uncertainty hydrological and water resource system ,and establishing and analyzing connection number based mathematical model .T he method research of systems analysis ,prediction ,evaluation ,decision-mak-ing analysis ,optimization ,simulation ,reasoning and control based on set pair analysis theory can not only expose and deal with more complex characteristic of the uncertainty hydrological and water re-source system ,but also enrich ,develop and perfect the uncertainty analysis theories of hydrological and water resource system .Such study becomes a new subject of hydrological and water resource the-ories and set pair analysis ,and has broad application prospects in hydrological and water resource fields such as vulnerability analysis of water system ,risk assessment of flood and drought .