中国电机工程学报
中國電機工程學報
중국전궤공정학보
ZHONGGUO DIANJI GONGCHENG XUEBAO
2014年
1期
96-104
,共9页
条件风险价值%不确定性%短期充裕性%风力发电%电动汽车
條件風險價值%不確定性%短期充裕性%風力髮電%電動汽車
조건풍험개치%불학정성%단기충유성%풍력발전%전동기차
conditional value at risk(CVaR)%uncertainty%short term adequacy%wind power%electric vehicle
风电出力的随机性及电动汽车充、放电的不确定性给电力系统运行带来了很大风险。如何从运行的角度度量该风险以及从风险角度对系统运行进行优化决策是当前面临的新问题。该文考虑电源与负荷的双随机性，定义了电力系统短期充裕性指标：动态风险备用(dynamic reserve at risk， DRaR)和动态条件风险备用(dynamic conditional reserve at risk，DCRaR)，并给出了其计算方法；以最大化DCRaR为目标，建立了电力系统短期充裕性多阶段决策模型，实现了在购电成本约束下，电力公司购买不同类型电源的配比决策和电动汽车调度方案优化；仿真分析了风电接入、购电成本以及电动汽车充电模式对系统短期充裕性的影响，结果证明了所提指标和模型的合理性。
風電齣力的隨機性及電動汽車充、放電的不確定性給電力繫統運行帶來瞭很大風險。如何從運行的角度度量該風險以及從風險角度對繫統運行進行優化決策是噹前麵臨的新問題。該文攷慮電源與負荷的雙隨機性，定義瞭電力繫統短期充裕性指標：動態風險備用(dynamic reserve at risk， DRaR)和動態條件風險備用(dynamic conditional reserve at risk，DCRaR)，併給齣瞭其計算方法；以最大化DCRaR為目標，建立瞭電力繫統短期充裕性多階段決策模型，實現瞭在購電成本約束下，電力公司購買不同類型電源的配比決策和電動汽車調度方案優化；倣真分析瞭風電接入、購電成本以及電動汽車充電模式對繫統短期充裕性的影響，結果證明瞭所提指標和模型的閤理性。
풍전출력적수궤성급전동기차충、방전적불학정성급전력계통운행대래료흔대풍험。여하종운행적각도도량해풍험이급종풍험각도대계통운행진행우화결책시당전면림적신문제。해문고필전원여부하적쌍수궤성，정의료전력계통단기충유성지표：동태풍험비용(dynamic reserve at risk， DRaR)화동태조건풍험비용(dynamic conditional reserve at risk，DCRaR)，병급출료기계산방법；이최대화DCRaR위목표，건립료전력계통단기충유성다계단결책모형，실현료재구전성본약속하，전력공사구매불동류형전원적배비결책화전동기차조도방안우화；방진분석료풍전접입、구전성본이급전동기차충전모식대계통단기충유성적영향，결과증명료소제지표화모형적합이성。
The characteristics of randomness and uncertainty of wind power and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging increase the risk of power system operation. How to evaluate the operational risk and make an optimal decision based on this risk is of great importance. The short-term adequacy measuring indexes of power systems, i.e. Dynamic Reserve at Risk (DRaR) and Dynamic Conditional Reserve at Risk (DCRaR) were proposed with consideration of double randomness from generation and load. The calculation method of the indexes was proved mathematically. A multi-stage decision model for short-term adequacy of power systems was built with the objective of maximizing DCRaR. Under the restriction of a reasonable cost, it can solve the purchasing scheme of different kinds of energy and EV charging scheduling schemes of the electric company. Simulation tests were done to evaluate the influences of wind power integration, electricity purchase cost and EV charging modes on short-term adequacy of power systems. The results show that the proposed indexes and model are reasonable.
