CAJ | 학술논문

准确地水平面总辐射预测是进行光伏功率预测的前提，对提高光伏发电消纳能力具有重要意义。文章基于地基云图观测，建立了云图遮挡复原和畸变还原算法，以及分类型的云团分类识别与运动预测算法，最终实现对水平面总辐射的预测。为验证提出的算法，利用南京市浦口区2012年6月的TSI-880全天空成像仪和地面总辐射计观测数据对水平面总辐射进行预测。结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度，能够有效地预测由云遮挡造成的辐射跳变过程。
준학지수평면총복사예측시진행광복공솔예측적전제，대제고광복발전소납능력구유중요의의。문장기우지기운도관측，건립료운도차당복원화기변환원산법，이급분류형적운단분류식별여운동예측산법，최종실현대수평면총복사적예측。위험증제출적산법，이용남경시포구구2012년6월적TSI-880전천공성상의화지면총복사계관측수거대수평면총복사진행예측。결과표명해방법구유교고적예측정도，능구유효지예측유운차당조성적복사도변과정。
Accurate prediction of global horizontal irradiance is the critical prerequisite for photovoltaic power forecast, which has great significance in promoting the photovoltaic power accommodation. This paper proposed a prediction method of global horizontal irradiance based on ground-based cloud images. The cloud mask recovery, distortion correction and cloud-type identification as well as cloud motion estimation algorithms were established. In order to verify the proposed method, the observation data of the TSI-880 total sky imager and the pyranometer located at Pukou, Nanjing in June 2012 were used to predict the global horizontal radiation. The results show that the method has high prediction accuracy, and has ability to predict the radiation fluctuation caused by the cloud sheltering process.