CAJ | 학술논문

电力系统需求侧业扩报装的容量是分析预测全社会用电量的一个重要参考指标，长期以来，都以定性分析为主，文章以安徽为例，在对相关变量进行季节性分解的基础上，建立业扩报装容量和全省全社会用电量之间的定量关系月度模型。结果表明所建模型预测结果具有较高参考意义，并适用于短期月度电量预测。
전력계통수구측업확보장적용량시분석예측전사회용전량적일개중요삼고지표，장기이래，도이정성분석위주，문장이안휘위례，재대상관변량진행계절성분해적기출상，건립업확보장용량화전성전사회용전량지간적정량관계월도모형。결과표명소건모형예측결과구유교고삼고의의，병괄용우단기월도전량예측。
The capacity of business expansion from power system demand side is an important reference index to analyze and forecast the whole society electricity consumption .In the past years , the researches mainly have focused on qualitative analysis .In this paper , taking Anhui province as an example , on the basis of seasonal decomposition for the related variables , the model between the capacity of business ex-pansion and the whole society electricity consumption for month is built .The result shows that the predic-ting result of the model has better reference significance , and applied to forecast the short-term monthly e-lectricity consumption .