CAJ | 학술논문

低层相对湿度和风场等物理量场对降水有较高的预报能力，但仍存在空报和漏报现象，为了提高黑龙江省晴雨天气预报准确率，对黑龙江省大量有降水和无降水天气成因进行对比分析。结果表明：K 指数时空分布特点对晴雨预报有十分显著的指示意义，尤其对分析低层相对湿度小或风场辐合条件差等容易出现降水空报或漏报等疑难降水成因，有较好的辅助作用。在 K 指数高值中心区或高能舌区容易出现降水；K 指数梯度较大区或较强能量锋也会触发降水；在 K 指数低值中心区发生降水的可能性较小。不同季节有无降水的 K 指数高值区和低值区的阈值不同。
저층상대습도화풍장등물리량장대강수유교고적예보능력，단잉존재공보화루보현상，위료제고흑룡강성청우천기예보준학솔，대흑룡강성대량유강수화무강수천기성인진행대비분석。결과표명：K 지수시공분포특점대청우예보유십분현저적지시의의，우기대분석저층상대습도소혹풍장복합조건차등용역출현강수공보혹루보등의난강수성인，유교호적보조작용。재 K 지수고치중심구혹고능설구용역출현강수；K 지수제도교대구혹교강능량봉야회촉발강수；재 K 지수저치중심구발생강수적가능성교소。불동계절유무강수적 K 지수고치구화저치구적역치불동。
Although the relative humidity and wind field in lower atmosphere were very effective to forecast rain or shine weather,there were still some missing or false-alarm forecasts.In order to improve the accuracy rates of rain or shine weather forecast in Heilongjiang province,the forming reasons of weather cases with and without rain were analyzed.The results indicate that the temporal and spatial distributions of K index are indicative to rain or shine weather forecast,and could help to forecast the complex weather condition in which relative humidity in low level is small or wind convergence is poor,which are easy to lead to a missing or false-alarm forecast.Precipitation often appears in the high value center area or high energy tongue area of K index and in the strong K index gradi-ent area or energy front,while it is seldom in the low value center area of K index.The threshold values with or without rain in the high and low values area of K index vary in different seasons.