CAJ | 학술논문

以洞庭湖区24个气象站1960-2011年降水量资料为基础数据，利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 突变检验法、小波分析等方法分析了洞庭湖区年降水量的变化特征，并采用正交分解函数 EOF、旋转正交分解函数 REOF 计算了洞庭湖区年尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI），分析了洞庭湖区的旱涝时空分布特征。结果表明：洞庭湖区年降水量空间上由北向南逐渐增加，时间上没有显著变化趋势。1963年洞庭湖年降水量发生突变。洞庭湖区年降水量存在6、9 a 和16-17 a 振荡周期。洞庭湖区旱涝频繁，极端气候事件有增加的趋势。洞庭湖区年降水量在空间上具有较好的一致性，即普遍干旱或洪涝，但也存在南北反相变化即南部干旱北部洪涝或南部洪涝北部干旱的特点。洞庭湖区年降水量存在南部、西北部和中部3个异常气候区。
이동정호구24개기상참1960-2011년강수량자료위기출수거，이용기후경향솔、Mann-Kendall 돌변검험법、소파분석등방법분석료동정호구년강수량적변화특정，병채용정교분해함수 EOF、선전정교분해함수 REOF 계산료동정호구년척도적표준화강수지수（SPI），분석료동정호구적한로시공분포특정。결과표명：동정호구년강수량공간상유북향남축점증가，시간상몰유현저변화추세。1963년동정호년강수량발생돌변。동정호구년강수량존재6、9 a 화16-17 a 진탕주기。동정호구한로빈번，겁단기후사건유증가적추세。동정호구년강수량재공간상구유교호적일치성，즉보편간한혹홍로，단야존재남북반상변화즉남부간한북부홍로혹남부홍로북부간한적특점。동정호구년강수량존재남부、서북부화중부3개이상기후구。
Based on the precipitation data at 24 weather stations from 1960 to 2011 in Donting Lake area,the annu-al precipitation variation was analyzed by methods of a climatic trend rate,a Mann-Kendall test and a wavelet anal-ysis.Annual SPI(standard precipitation index)was calculated by methods of an EOF(empirical orthogonal func-tion)and a REOF(rotated empirical orthogonal function),and the temporal and spatial distributions of drought and flood were discussed.The results show that the annual precipitation increases from south to north on spatial scale in Dongting Lake area,while its trend is not significant on temporal scale.An abrupt change of annual precipitation appears in 1963.There are 6 years,9 years,and 16-17 years precipitation oscillation cycles in Dongting Lake area. Drought and flood are frequent and extreme weather events are in increasing trends in the study area.The annual precipitation has good consistency on spatial scale,i.e.general drought or flood.But there are also cases in which it is drought in the south and flood in the north and vice verse.There are the south,northwest and middle areas of abnormal climate regions for annual precipitation in Dongting Lake area.