CAJ | 학술논문

通过文献回顾，以利率平价理论为基础，考虑中国资本项目渐进开放的现实因素，选择2007年10月～2013年6月的月度数据为研究样本，建立误差修正模型，研究了美国利率政策调整对中国利率政策变动的影响。结果表明，中国与美国两国间利率政策有长期依存性。美国利率政策的调整会引起中国利率发生同向联动调整。资本流动限制对中国国内利率有显著影响，而美元预期升值率的影响效应在一般统计水平上不显著。短期因素的冲击虽然会对中国利率产生同向的冲击，但在误差反向修正机制作用下，会较快地恢复长期均衡态势。最后，提出了相关政策建议。
통과문헌회고，이리솔평개이론위기출，고필중국자본항목점진개방적현실인소，선택2007년10월～2013년6월적월도수거위연구양본，건립오차수정모형，연구료미국리솔정책조정대중국리솔정책변동적영향。결과표명，중국여미국량국간리솔정책유장기의존성。미국리솔정책적조정회인기중국리솔발생동향련동조정。자본류동한제대중국국내리솔유현저영향，이미원예기승치솔적영향효응재일반통계수평상불현저。단기인소적충격수연회대중국리솔산생동향적충격，단재오차반향수정궤제작용하，회교쾌지회복장기균형태세。최후，제출료상관정책건의。
Based on the interest rate parity theory and literature review ,this paper studies the im-pact of adjustment of the U .S .interest rate policy on Chinese interest rate policy changes by consider-ing the gradual opening up of China’s capital account and selecting monthly data in 2007 .10-2013 .6as the sample and establishing error correction model .T he results show :there is a long-term dependency between Chineseinterest rate policy and the United States interest rate policy .The adjustment of the U .S .interest rate policy will makeChineseinterest rate policy adjust in the same direction .Restrictions on capital flows have a significant effect on Chinese interest rate while the expectation of the USD ap-preciation has no significant influence statistically .Short-term factors has impact on Chinese interest rate in the same direction .The error correction coefficient is negative and it is in line with reverse ad-justment mechanism .Finally ,some relevant policy recommendations are put forward .