CAJ | 학술논문

利用青岛市1961-2012年的逐日气象观测资料，采用线性倾向估计法和Pettitt突变检验方法，分析了青岛市年、四季降水量和参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势和突变情况。结果表明，近52年间，青岛市年、四季降水量分别为666.3mm、111.0mm、374.1mm、145.0mm和36.2mm ；年、夏季和秋季降水量时间序列呈减小趋势，而春季和冬季降水量时间序列则呈增大趋势，但所有时间序列变化趋势均未通过显著性水平检验。青岛市多年平均年、四季参考作物蒸散量分别为952.7mm、263.5mm、313.0mm、255.9mm和120.3mm ；除春季参考作物蒸散量时间序列呈增大趋势外，其余时间序列均呈减小趋势；其中，秋季和冬季参考作物蒸散量的减小趋势通过了α＝0.01和α＝0.05显著性水平检验，而其余时间序列的变化趋势均未通过显著性水平检验。青岛市降水量和参考作物蒸散量时间序列中，除秋季参考作物蒸散量出现减小突变外，其他时间序列均未出现突变。
이용청도시1961-2012년적축일기상관측자료，채용선성경향고계법화Pettitt돌변검험방법，분석료청도시년、사계강수량화삼고작물증산량적변화추세화돌변정황。결과표명，근52년간，청도시년、사계강수량분별위666.3mm、111.0mm、374.1mm、145.0mm화36.2mm ；년、하계화추계강수량시간서렬정감소추세，이춘계화동계강수량시간서렬칙정증대추세，단소유시간서렬변화추세균미통과현저성수평검험。청도시다년평균년、사계삼고작물증산량분별위952.7mm、263.5mm、313.0mm、255.9mm화120.3mm ；제춘계삼고작물증산량시간서렬정증대추세외，기여시간서렬균정감소추세；기중，추계화동계삼고작물증산량적감소추세통과료α＝0.01화α＝0.05현저성수평검험，이기여시간서렬적변화추세균미통과현저성수평검험。청도시강수량화삼고작물증산량시간서렬중，제추계삼고작물증산량출현감소돌변외，기타시간서렬균미출현돌변。
In this study ,the variability of annual and seasonal precipitation and reference evapotranspiration in Qingdao during the period 1961-2012 were examined .The methods of linear regression and Pettitt test were used to identify the presence of trends and change point .The results showed that the averaged annual and seasonal precipitation were 666.3mm ,111.0mm ,374.1mm ,145.0mm and 36.2mm ,respectively dur-ing the past 52 years .The time series of annual precipitation ,summer precipitation and autumn precipita-tion exhibited decreasing trend ,whereas the time series of spring and winter precipitation exhibited in-creasing trends during the period of 1961 to 2012 ,but there is no statistically significant trend .The aver-aged annual and seasonal reference evapotranspiration were 952.7mm ,263.5mm ,313.0mm ,255.9mm and 120.3mm ,respectively .The time series of annual and seasonal reference evapotranspiration ,except for the increasing trend in spring season ,exhibited decreasing trend during 1961~2012. A statistically sig-nificant decreasing trend in autumn and winter reference evapotranspiration was detected during the same period .A statistically significant downward shift was detected in the autumn reference evapotranspiration through the Pettitt test around 1995 ,while no change point were detected in the rest of the time series .