CAJ | 학술논문

针对应用随机地质建模技术进行不确定性分析中的难点问题，提出了使用响应面代理模型进行不确定分析的方法及其研究流程；分析了此方法应用过程中的关键点，即根据地质特征，充分考虑各建模环节的不确定性，开展敏感性参数分析，应用响应面方法建立代理模型，生成训练/验证模型及应用代理模型进行结果预测时采样算法的要求。基于代理模型的预测结果，可方便地得到定量评价参数相对真实的概率分布。在此基础之上，筛选对应于某一概率下的随机地质模型，有助于进一步定量评价油田开发风险与潜力，为开发方案的编制及优化服务。
침대응용수궤지질건모기술진행불학정성분석중적난점문제，제출료사용향응면대리모형진행불학정분석적방법급기연구류정；분석료차방법응용과정중적관건점，즉근거지질특정，충분고필각건모배절적불학정성，개전민감성삼수분석，응용향응면방법건립대리모형，생성훈련/험증모형급응용대리모형진행결과예측시채양산법적요구。기우대리모형적예측결과，가방편지득도정량평개삼수상대진실적개솔분포。재차기출지상，사선대응우모일개솔하적수궤지질모형，유조우진일보정량평개유전개발풍험여잠력，위개발방안적편제급우화복무。
To solve the difficulty problems,which the stochastic geological model is uncertain,the paper presented the response-surface proxy model to carried out the uncertainties method and its research process. The uncertainties with the geomodel can’t be easily and correctly disclosed with respect to the process of the stochastically modeling that is limited by computer’s capacity and time consumption. In the whole process,some following crucial things should be considered serious-ly. All uncertainties with the geomodeling should be fully taken into account in compliance with the geological characteristics of reservoirs. Sensitivity analysis would be carried out prior to the generating of proxy model. The sampling algorithms for generating both the training and the validation models could be different from the predicating of the target through proxy model. The probabilistic distribution of the target variables(oil in place as an example)can be understood through proxy model to a great extent. Therefore,these stochastic geomodels can be picked out with respect to the probabilities in terms of the target. In this sense,risks and potentials for the development of a reservoir can be appraised further based on the uncertainty studies.