水利学报
水利學報
수리학보
2014年
1期
87-95
,共9页
水库诱发地震%模糊综合评价%云模型%层次分析法%风险评价%不确定性%三峡水库
水庫誘髮地震%模糊綜閤評價%雲模型%層次分析法%風險評價%不確定性%三峽水庫
수고유발지진%모호종합평개%운모형%층차분석법%풍험평개%불학정성%삼협수고
reservoir-induced seismicity%fuzzy comprehensive evaluation%cloud model%analytic hierarchy process%risk assessment%uncertainty%Three Gorges reservoir
针对水库诱发地震孕育和发生过程中的不确定性，将水库诱发地震总体组合环境条件作为一个模糊系统，构建了包括评语层、指标层、因子层和状态层等多个层次的水库诱发地震风险评价指标体系。在对其风险从下往上逐层进行权重计算和模糊映射时，考虑到重要性标度和隶属度确定容易受个人经验和主观因素影响，提出了基于云模型改进的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价方法。通过建立水库诱发地震风险评语集云模型、诱震因子权重云模型和隶属度云模型以及综合评价结果云模型，利用云模型的期望、熵和超熵3个数字特征，将模糊性、随机性和离散性有机地结合起来，实现了不确定性语言与定量数值之间的自然转换。最后，应用云模型改进的方法，对长江三峡水库的诱发地震风险进行了多级模糊综合评价实验，极大地提高了评价结果的鲁棒性和可视化。
針對水庫誘髮地震孕育和髮生過程中的不確定性，將水庫誘髮地震總體組閤環境條件作為一箇模糊繫統，構建瞭包括評語層、指標層、因子層和狀態層等多箇層次的水庫誘髮地震風險評價指標體繫。在對其風險從下往上逐層進行權重計算和模糊映射時，攷慮到重要性標度和隸屬度確定容易受箇人經驗和主觀因素影響，提齣瞭基于雲模型改進的水庫誘髮地震風險多級模糊綜閤評價方法。通過建立水庫誘髮地震風險評語集雲模型、誘震因子權重雲模型和隸屬度雲模型以及綜閤評價結果雲模型，利用雲模型的期望、熵和超熵3箇數字特徵，將模糊性、隨機性和離散性有機地結閤起來，實現瞭不確定性語言與定量數值之間的自然轉換。最後，應用雲模型改進的方法，對長江三峽水庫的誘髮地震風險進行瞭多級模糊綜閤評價實驗，極大地提高瞭評價結果的魯棒性和可視化。
침대수고유발지진잉육화발생과정중적불학정성，장수고유발지진총체조합배경조건작위일개모호계통，구건료포괄평어층、지표층、인자층화상태층등다개층차적수고유발지진풍험평개지표체계。재대기풍험종하왕상축층진행권중계산화모호영사시，고필도중요성표도화대속도학정용역수개인경험화주관인소영향，제출료기우운모형개진적수고유발지진풍험다급모호종합평개방법。통과건립수고유발지진풍험평어집운모형、유진인자권중운모형화대속도운모형이급종합평개결과운모형，이용운모형적기망、적화초적3개수자특정，장모호성、수궤성화리산성유궤지결합기래，실현료불학정성어언여정량수치지간적자연전환。최후，응용운모형개진적방법，대장강삼협수고적유발지진풍험진행료다급모호종합평개실험，겁대지제고료평개결과적로봉성화가시화。
Reservoir-induced earthquake is one of the most important tasks in the geological analysis and environmental assessment of water conservancy project. Because of the uncertainties in the process of its preparation and occurrence, the reservoir-induced earthquake is considered as a fuzzy system in this paper. After systematical identification, an evaluation index system of reservoir-induced seismic risk, which is di-vided into such levels as remark layer, indicator layer, factor layer and status layer, is established. In the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the importance scale and membership degree of indices are easi-ly impacted by personal experience and subjective consciousness during the weights calculation and fuzzy mapping. By introducing the cloud model, we propose an improved approach for multi-hierarchy fuzzy com-prehensive evaluation of reservoir-induced seismic risk so as to solve this problem. The corresponding cloud models of remark set,weight and membership degree of index,as well as the cloud model of evaluation re-sult of reservoir-induced seismic risk are built respectively. With the three numeric characteristics of cloud model such as expectation value (Ex), entropy (En) and hyper entropy (He), the fuzziness, randomicity and discreteness in reservoir-induced earthquake are organically combined together, and the uncertain lan-guages are naturally transformed into quantitative values. Finally, as a case study, the proposed method is applied to the seismic risk evaluation of the Three Gorges reservoir on the Yangtze River. It’s concluded that the robustness and visualization of multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of reservoir induced earthquake risk based on the cloud model are highly increased.
