CAJ | 학술논문

预测市场已经成为国际社会科学研究和实践领域的热点和前沿，正引起多个学科学者的兴趣。对该领域的理论研究吸引了政治学、法律、经济学、心理学、计算机、管理学等学科学者，而其应用则涉及政府、企业、非政府组织等。在对预测市场的概念、发展、预测市场的理论基础及其运行机制进行评介的基础上，探讨了其应用于情报分析研究领域的可能途径，为情报分析研究提供一条新的思路。
예측시장이경성위국제사회과학연구화실천영역적열점화전연，정인기다개학과학자적흥취。대해영역적이론연구흡인료정치학、법률、경제학、심이학、계산궤、관이학등학과학자，이기응용칙섭급정부、기업、비정부조직등。재대예측시장적개념、발전、예측시장적이론기출급기운행궤제진행평개적기출상，탐토료기응용우정보분석연구영역적가능도경，위정보분석연구제공일조신적사로。
Prediction markets has already become the hot spot in the theoretical research and practice of social science worldwide and has interested scholars of different disciplines, such as in politics, law, economics, psychology, computer science, and management. Its ap-plication involves government, enterprises, and the non- government organizations and so on. After exploring the concept, principles, theoretical development, and operational mechanism of prediction markets, this article discusses the possibilities of applying prediction markets method to the intelligence analysis, and thus provides a new mentality for the intelligence analysis.