CAJ | 학술논문

利用新的老龄化测度方法，基于六普数据得到的中国人口预测结果分析了中国未来人口老龄化的变化趋势。通过对比年龄中位数、老年系数和老年抚养比三个指标，显示在新的老年测度下中国未来老龄化程度虽然仍然存在长期增加的趋势，但老龄化程度明显改善，且在2040年后大致稳定，这与以前对老龄化的认识明显不同。给出了在2010年男性60岁、女性55岁的退休年龄不变条件下，利用新测度计算得到的未来各年对应的退休年龄，该结果可以作为政府调整退休年龄的参考依据。
이용신적노령화측도방법，기우륙보수거득도적중국인구예측결과분석료중국미래인구노령화적변화추세。통과대비년령중위수、노년계수화노년무양비삼개지표，현시재신적노년측도하중국미래노령화정도수연잉연존재장기증가적추세，단노령화정도명현개선，차재2040년후대치은정，저여이전대노령화적인식명현불동。급출료재2010년남성60세、녀성55세적퇴휴년령불변조건하，이용신측도계산득도적미래각년대응적퇴휴년령，해결과가이작위정부조정퇴휴년령적삼고의거。
This paper uses a new measuring method for aging to analyze the trend of aging population in China based on the population forecast of the sixth census data. By comparing the median age, aging coefifcient and aged-dependency ratio, the paper shows that although the aging trend continues in the long term according to the new measuring method, the degree of aging is signiifcantly reduced and the trend is also going to get steady after 2040, which is apparently different from the previous understanding of aging. Meanwhile, the retirement ages calculated according to the new measuring method can be taken as reference for the government to adjust the retirement age.