电力系统保护与控制
電力繫統保護與控製
전력계통보호여공제
POWER SYSTM PROTECTION AND CONTROL
2014年
3期
71-76
,共6页
风电功率%虚拟预测%小波包变换%方差倒数法%组合预测
風電功率%虛擬預測%小波包變換%方差倒數法%組閤預測
풍전공솔%허의예측%소파포변환%방차도수법%조합예측
wind power%virtual forecasting%wavelet packet transform%variance reciprocal method%combination forecasting
为了提高风电功率的预测精度，针对风机功率不稳定性和非线性强的特点，使用小波包变换将风机出力分解成多个频率的子序列，然后运用组合预测方法分别对各子序列进行提前24 h预测，叠加各子序列的预测值，得出实际预测结果。其中组合预测方法权系数是通过虚拟预测的方法由方差倒数法确定。选择广东某风电场实测数据作为案例，对连续7天风电功率进行了预测。结果表明：小波包变换能有效把握风电功率变化规律，对小波包变换后的各子序列的预测结果表明组合预测效果优于单一预测方法。
為瞭提高風電功率的預測精度，針對風機功率不穩定性和非線性彊的特點，使用小波包變換將風機齣力分解成多箇頻率的子序列，然後運用組閤預測方法分彆對各子序列進行提前24 h預測，疊加各子序列的預測值，得齣實際預測結果。其中組閤預測方法權繫數是通過虛擬預測的方法由方差倒數法確定。選擇廣東某風電場實測數據作為案例，對連續7天風電功率進行瞭預測。結果錶明：小波包變換能有效把握風電功率變化規律，對小波包變換後的各子序列的預測結果錶明組閤預測效果優于單一預測方法。
위료제고풍전공솔적예측정도，침대풍궤공솔불은정성화비선성강적특점，사용소파포변환장풍궤출력분해성다개빈솔적자서렬，연후운용조합예측방법분별대각자서렬진행제전24 h예측，첩가각자서렬적예측치，득출실제예측결과。기중조합예측방법권계수시통과허의예측적방법유방차도수법학정。선택엄동모풍전장실측수거작위안례，대련속7천풍전공솔진행료예측。결과표명：소파포변환능유효파악풍전공솔변화규률，대소파포변환후적각자서렬적예측결과표명조합예측효과우우단일예측방법。
Considering the instability and strong nonlinearity of wind power, in order to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a series of sub-sequences. Then each sequence is forecasted 24 h ahead by combination forecasting model. And the weight coefficients of each sequence are identified using variance reciprocal method through a virtual forecasting method. Consequently, all the subsequence forecasting outputs are superposed to obtain the final forecasted results. At the end, a wind farm in Guangdong is chosen to validate the feasibility of the proposed model. Through seven consecutive days of forecasting of the wind power, the results indicate that the wavelet packet transform can grasp the variation law of wind power effectively, and the combination forecasting method can obtain a better forecasting result than single method.
