CAJ | 학술논문

母线负荷预测是提高电网调度精益化水平的重要环节，也是制定电网运行方式、计算线路输送能力、甄别电网安全状况的重要依据。大电网中母线数目众多，且单个母线的负荷水平低、波动性强、规律性弱，根据母线负荷预测领域面临的这些难题，提出了簇集网状网络的概念，并进一步提出了虚拟母线(virtual bus，VB)的聚合判据，证明了 VB的基态特性和断态特性，并依据聚合判据提出了VB的辨识算法。基于河北南网的实例分析验证了VB辨识算法的有效性。VB技术可以在电力系统的负荷预测、潮流计算、状态估计、安全校核等领域得到广泛的应用。
모선부하예측시제고전망조도정익화수평적중요배절，야시제정전망운행방식、계산선로수송능력、견별전망안전상황적중요의거。대전망중모선수목음다，차단개모선적부하수평저、파동성강、규률성약，근거모선부하예측영역면림적저사난제，제출료족집망상망락적개념，병진일보제출료허의모선(virtual bus，VB)적취합판거，증명료 VB적기태특성화단태특성，병의거취합판거제출료VB적변식산법。기우하북남망적실례분석험증료VB변식산법적유효성。VB기술가이재전력계통적부하예측、조류계산、상태고계、안전교핵등영역득도엄범적응용。
Bus load forecasting is a critical factor to enhance the management and operation of power systems, which lays a good foundation for power system scheduling, security evaluation and available transmission capacity calculation. According to the problems in the bus load forecasting domain that there are too many buses within the power system and bus load is always volatile and with weak regularity, the concept of “cluster mesh network” was first analyzed in this paper. On this basis, a novel clustering criterion and identifying algorithm of “virtual bus” was proposed. The basic-state and off-state characteristics of virtual bus were analyzed and demonstrated. Effectiveness of the concept and algorithm would be testified in the section of case study, which was formed based on actual data of Hebei Southern Power Grid. The virtual bus technique could be widely implemented in load forecasting, power flow calculation, state estimation, and security correction, etc.