CAJ | 학술논문

灌区水资源优化配置的不确定性研究，对于提高水分的利用效率，减少农业灌溉用水，建立节水型社会具有重要的意义，尤其是对于中国的干旱半干旱地区。该文针对灌区水资源系统中存在的不确定性，以西营灌区、清源灌区、永昌灌区为研究区域，运用区间2阶段随机规划的方法，建立了地表水和地下水联合调度的灌区之间水资源优化配置模型。该模型以多灌区、多水源联合调度系统的成本最小为目标函数，引入随机数和区间数表示该系统中存在的不确定性，将地下水和地表水水资源在不同地区之间进行优化，并以配置结果为输入数据，以作物全生育期的水分生产函数为基础，建立灌区不同农作物灌溉定额的非线性区间不确定性水资源优化配置模型，将优化配置水量分配到灌区典型农作物。2个模型均以区间的形式给出优化配置的结果，为决策者提供更为准确的决策空间，更真实地反映实际的水资源优化配置形式。
관구수자원우화배치적불학정성연구，대우제고수분적이용효솔，감소농업관개용수，건립절수형사회구유중요적의의，우기시대우중국적간한반간한지구。해문침대관구수자원계통중존재적불학정성，이서영관구、청원관구、영창관구위연구구역，운용구간2계단수궤규화적방법，건립료지표수화지하수연합조도적관구지간수자원우화배치모형。해모형이다관구、다수원연합조도계통적성본최소위목표함수，인입수궤수화구간수표시해계통중존재적불학정성，장지하수화지표수수자원재불동지구지간진행우화，병이배치결과위수입수거，이작물전생육기적수분생산함수위기출，건립관구불동농작물관개정액적비선성구간불학정성수자원우화배치모형，장우화배치수량분배도관구전형농작물。2개모형균이구간적형식급출우화배치적결과，위결책자제공경위준학적결책공간，경진실지반영실제적수자원우화배치형식。
Studies on water resources allocation in irrigation area under uncertainty are important for increasing water use efficiency, reducing agricultural irrigation water amount and establishing water-saving society, especially for the arid and semi-arid areas in China. In this study, two models were established based on uncertainty theory in order to make plans for efficient water resources management. One of the models was an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic optimization model developed for dispatching the underground and surface water systems for irrigation area of Xiying, Qingyuan, Yongchuan (China) under the conditions of uncertainty and complexity. In the model, the minimal system operation cost was regarded as the objective function and the probability distribution and interval parameters were used to express the uncertainty of water supply. The process of water supply from multiple sources was simulated and the allocation of water from various sources was optimized. The model took into account of the random of inflow, assumed that the probability of occurrence for high, middle and low levels were 0.2, 0.6, and 0.2, and introduced the decision variables“z”. The multi-variable problem was solved by the method of linear programming, and the optimum range in the model was determined. The other model was developed based on the water production function of crops (spring wheat, spring maize, flax, seed-water melon, and potato) in the whole growth stage. The water resources in different irrigation area were assigned to each of the crops in order to realize the biggest benefit while saving water. The whole-growth-stage distribution of water quantity in representative years with supposed frequency was obtained. The models of optimization configuration and optimized processes based on uncertainty theory could efficiently and accurately identify water source for an unknown inflow,and provide valuable information for decision making in planning management and help with striking a balance between environmental and economic objectives. Meanwhile, it could promote the development of water-saving irrigation agriculture, and further improve the economic value of water resources. In comparison with the other optimization techniques, the method used here had at least three advantages of 1) it could solve the problems of uncertainties in agricultural water resources system, and produce the results in the forms of interval number, providing a more broad decision space for decision makers;2) the water allocation among multi-water resources, multi-area and multi-crops could enhance water use efficiency and income of farmers;and 3) it could be used for calculation of the crop water requirement in different level years, and resolve the problem of multi-water supply probability.