农业工程学报
農業工程學報
농업공정학보
2014年
4期
1-11
,共11页
土地利用%预测%数学模型%城镇化%耕地%Logistic模型%中国
土地利用%預測%數學模型%城鎮化%耕地%Logistic模型%中國
토지이용%예측%수학모형%성진화%경지%Logistic모형%중국
land use%forecasting%mathematical models%urbanization%cultivated land%Logistic model%China
为揭示中国城镇化演进对耕地影响，该文基于Logistic模型对此进行了探索。运用SPSS软件及1978-2011年中国城镇化水平数据，采用曲线回归的拟合优度最大估算方法，对中国城镇化水平饱和值进行了估算，并构建了刻画中国城镇化演进的 Logistic 模型，据此模型对中国城镇化未来发展水平进行了预测；运用 STRIPAT （stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology）模型及1996-2011年中国经济社会发展相关数据，借助 SPSS 软件，采用偏最小二乘回归方法，揭示了城镇化进程及人口、经济发展水平、技术因素对耕地变化的边际贡献；依据中国未来城镇化演进趋势及城镇化对耕地边际影响，测算了中国未来城镇化演进对耕地影响，结果表明：中国城镇化水平饱和值为83%；2020年、2030年中国城镇化水平将分别达到57.68%、65.73%，2020年前，城镇化年平均增速为0.97个百分点，2020-2030年，年平均增速为0.81个百分点；城镇化对耕地变化的边际弹性系数为-0.007391，人口、经济发展水平、技术因素对耕地变化的边际弹性系数分别为-0.007133、-0.009343、-0.002952；2012-2020年，城镇化演进将导致耕地面积净减少13.81万hm2，年均减少1.53万hm2，2020-2030年，净减少10.87万hm2，年均减少1.09万hm2。基于研究结果，适度把握城镇化发展速度，注重城镇化发展质量；科学编制分年度土地供应计划，采取差别化土地供应策略；摒弃土地财政错误理念，严格执行国家耕地保护的各项政策，严控房地产及低水平或重复生产项目用地；严肃查处土地利用违规行为，强化土地监管等方面提出了政策建议。研究结果可为管理层把握城镇化适度发展速度、节奏，科学编制土地供应计划及制定耕地保护政策提供参考，也可为省域尺度的同类研究提供方法借鉴。
為揭示中國城鎮化縯進對耕地影響，該文基于Logistic模型對此進行瞭探索。運用SPSS軟件及1978-2011年中國城鎮化水平數據，採用麯線迴歸的擬閤優度最大估算方法，對中國城鎮化水平飽和值進行瞭估算，併構建瞭刻畫中國城鎮化縯進的 Logistic 模型，據此模型對中國城鎮化未來髮展水平進行瞭預測；運用 STRIPAT （stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology）模型及1996-2011年中國經濟社會髮展相關數據，藉助 SPSS 軟件，採用偏最小二乘迴歸方法，揭示瞭城鎮化進程及人口、經濟髮展水平、技術因素對耕地變化的邊際貢獻；依據中國未來城鎮化縯進趨勢及城鎮化對耕地邊際影響，測算瞭中國未來城鎮化縯進對耕地影響，結果錶明：中國城鎮化水平飽和值為83%；2020年、2030年中國城鎮化水平將分彆達到57.68%、65.73%，2020年前，城鎮化年平均增速為0.97箇百分點，2020-2030年，年平均增速為0.81箇百分點；城鎮化對耕地變化的邊際彈性繫數為-0.007391，人口、經濟髮展水平、技術因素對耕地變化的邊際彈性繫數分彆為-0.007133、-0.009343、-0.002952；2012-2020年，城鎮化縯進將導緻耕地麵積淨減少13.81萬hm2，年均減少1.53萬hm2，2020-2030年，淨減少10.87萬hm2，年均減少1.09萬hm2。基于研究結果，適度把握城鎮化髮展速度，註重城鎮化髮展質量；科學編製分年度土地供應計劃，採取差彆化土地供應策略；摒棄土地財政錯誤理唸，嚴格執行國傢耕地保護的各項政策，嚴控房地產及低水平或重複生產項目用地；嚴肅查處土地利用違規行為，彊化土地鑑管等方麵提齣瞭政策建議。研究結果可為管理層把握城鎮化適度髮展速度、節奏，科學編製土地供應計劃及製定耕地保護政策提供參攷，也可為省域呎度的同類研究提供方法藉鑒。
위게시중국성진화연진대경지영향，해문기우Logistic모형대차진행료탐색。운용SPSS연건급1978-2011년중국성진화수평수거，채용곡선회귀적의합우도최대고산방법，대중국성진화수평포화치진행료고산，병구건료각화중국성진화연진적 Logistic 모형，거차모형대중국성진화미래발전수평진행료예측；운용 STRIPAT （stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology）모형급1996-2011년중국경제사회발전상관수거，차조 SPSS 연건，채용편최소이승회귀방법，게시료성진화진정급인구、경제발전수평、기술인소대경지변화적변제공헌；의거중국미래성진화연진추세급성진화대경지변제영향，측산료중국미래성진화연진대경지영향，결과표명：중국성진화수평포화치위83%；2020년、2030년중국성진화수평장분별체도57.68%、65.73%，2020년전，성진화년평균증속위0.97개백분점，2020-2030년，년평균증속위0.81개백분점；성진화대경지변화적변제탄성계수위-0.007391，인구、경제발전수평、기술인소대경지변화적변제탄성계수분별위-0.007133、-0.009343、-0.002952；2012-2020년，성진화연진장도치경지면적정감소13.81만hm2，년균감소1.53만hm2，2020-2030년，정감소10.87만hm2，년균감소1.09만hm2。기우연구결과，괄도파악성진화발전속도，주중성진화발전질량；과학편제분년도토지공응계화，채취차별화토지공응책략；병기토지재정착오이념，엄격집행국가경지보호적각항정책，엄공방지산급저수평혹중복생산항목용지；엄숙사처토지이용위규행위，강화토지감관등방면제출료정책건의。연구결과가위관리층파악성진화괄도발전속도、절주，과학편제토지공응계화급제정경지보호정책제공삼고，야가위성역척도적동류연구제공방법차감。
Accelerating urbanization is a major development strategy proposed by the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) National Congress. The prospect for the influence of China’s future urbanization evolution on cultivated land relates to the realization of a red line target of cultivated land protection and food safety. To reveal the evolution of China's urbanization impact on cultivated land, the author explores the problem based on a logistic model. Using SPSS software and China's urbanization level data from 1978 to 2011, the goodness-of-fit maximum estimation method of regression curve was employed to estimate the saturation value of China’s urbanization level and the Logistic model of describing China’s urbanization evolution was structured. Accordingly, the development level of China’s future urbanization was predicted. Based on a STRIPAT model and relevant data of China 's eco-social development from 1996 to 2011, SPSS software was combined with a partial least squares regression method to reveal the marginal contributions of urbanization process, population, economic development level, and technical factors on cultivated land change. According to China’s future urbanization evolutionary trend and the marginal influence of urbanization on cultivated land, the influence of China’s future urbanization on cultivated land was measured. The results are shown as the followings:1)The saturation value of China’s urbanization level is 83%. 2) China’s urbanization level will reach 57.68% and 65.73%in 2020 and 2030 respectively. Before 2020, the annual average growth rate of urbanization will be 0.97 percent point, and from 2020 to 2030, that will be 0.81percent point. 3) The marginal elasticity coefficient of urbanization, population, economic development level, and technological factors on cultivated land change will be-0.007391,-0.007133,-0.009343, and-0.002952 respectively. 4)From 2012 to 2020, urbanization evolution will lead to a net area reduction of cultivated land of 13.81×104hm2 with an annual average reduction of 1.53×104 hm2. From 2020 to 2030, that will be 10.87×104 hm2 with an annual average reduction of 1.09×104 hm2. Based on the results of the above, several measures should be implemented including focusing on the quality of urbanization with a moderate grasp on the speed of urbanization, scientifically preparing the annual land supply planning, adopting a differentiated land supply strategy, abandoning the wrong philosophy of land finance, strictly implementing national protection policies foe cultivated land, rigorously controlling real estate land and low-level or repeated production land; severely punishing violations of land use, and strengthening the policy recommendations on land supervision. The results can provide a reference for management to grasp the moderate urbanization pace and rhythm, scientifically prepare a land supply plan, and formulate cultivated land protection policies, as well as offer a method of reference for similar studies on a provincial scale.
