CAJ | 학술논문

准确、合理地构建间歇性电源的发电功率模型对于电力系统的仿真分析与计算具有重要意义。提出了一种风光发电功率时间序列模拟的单变量与多变量马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov chain Monte Carlo，MCMC)仿真方法。该模型针对风电场与光伏电站等多种类型的间歇性电源，构建发电功率时间序列的马尔科夫链，采用Gibbs抽样技术实现了单变量或多变量的时间序列模拟。不仅全面地分析了不同类型间歇性电源马尔科夫过程的特征与影响因素，并且在 MCMC方法中考虑了多变量之间的相互联系，使模型能够适应多组间歇性电源彼此间存在相关性的情形。对德国2家电力公司控制区域内的风电场、光伏电站进行仿真模拟，通过统计特征参数的对比分析，验证了所提模型的有效性。
준학、합리지구건간헐성전원적발전공솔모형대우전력계통적방진분석여계산구유중요의의。제출료일충풍광발전공솔시간서렬모의적단변량여다변량마이과부련몽특잡라(Markov chain Monte Carlo，MCMC)방진방법。해모형침대풍전장여광복전참등다충류형적간헐성전원，구건발전공솔시간서렬적마이과부련，채용Gibbs추양기술실현료단변량혹다변량적시간서렬모의。불부전면지분석료불동류형간헐성전원마이과부과정적특정여영향인소，병차재 MCMC방법중고필료다변량지간적상호련계，사모형능구괄응다조간헐성전원피차간존재상관성적정형。대덕국2가전력공사공제구역내적풍전장、광복전참진행방진모의，통과통계특정삼수적대비분석，험증료소제모형적유효성。
Constructing a model of generated power for intermittent power source accurately and reasonably is of great significance for power system simulation and analysis. A single- and multi-variable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to simulate time series of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is proposed. Aiming to many types of intermittent power source such as wind farms and PV generation stations, the proposed model constructs Markov chain for time series of generated power and utilizing Gibbs sampling the single- or multi-variable time series simulation is realized. Not only the features and impacting factors of Markov processes for different types of intermittent power sources are overall analyzed, and in the MCMC method the interrelation among multi-variables is considered, thus the proposed model can adapt to the condition that there are interrelations among multi sets of intermittent power sources. The wind farms and PV power plants located in the control areas of two power companies in Germany are simulated, and through the comparative analysis on statistical feature parameters the validity of the proposed model is verified.