计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2014年
4期
103-109
,共7页
网络流量预测%相空间重构%参数优化%最小二乘支持向量机%评价标准
網絡流量預測%相空間重構%參數優化%最小二乘支持嚮量機%評價標準
망락류량예측%상공간중구%삼수우화%최소이승지지향량궤%평개표준
network traffic prediction%phase space reconstruction%parameter optimization%least squares support vector machine%evaluation standard
为了提高网络流量的预测精度，利用相空间重构的两个关键参数-延迟时间（τ）和嵌入维（m）间的相互联系，提出一种延迟时间和嵌入维数联合优化的网络流量预测模型。该模型以最小二乘支持向量机作为网络流量预测算法，根据网络流量预测结果优劣评价指选择最优τ和m值，建立单步、多步网络流量预测模型，并通过仿真实验对模型的性能进行分析。结果表明，模型可以准确选择出最优嵌入维数和延迟时间，显著提高了网络流量的预测精度，预测结果明显优于独立优化τ和m以及传统联合优化τ和m的网络流量预测模型。
為瞭提高網絡流量的預測精度，利用相空間重構的兩箇關鍵參數-延遲時間（τ）和嵌入維（m）間的相互聯繫，提齣一種延遲時間和嵌入維數聯閤優化的網絡流量預測模型。該模型以最小二乘支持嚮量機作為網絡流量預測算法，根據網絡流量預測結果優劣評價指選擇最優τ和m值，建立單步、多步網絡流量預測模型，併通過倣真實驗對模型的性能進行分析。結果錶明，模型可以準確選擇齣最優嵌入維數和延遲時間，顯著提高瞭網絡流量的預測精度，預測結果明顯優于獨立優化τ和m以及傳統聯閤優化τ和m的網絡流量預測模型。
위료제고망락류량적예측정도，이용상공간중구적량개관건삼수-연지시간（τ）화감입유（m）간적상호련계，제출일충연지시간화감입유수연합우화적망락류량예측모형。해모형이최소이승지지향량궤작위망락류량예측산법，근거망락류량예측결과우렬평개지선택최우τ화m치，건립단보、다보망락류량예측모형，병통과방진실험대모형적성능진행분석。결과표명，모형가이준학선택출최우감입유수화연지시간，현저제고료망락류량적예측정도，예측결과명현우우독립우화τ화m이급전통연합우화τ화m적망락류량예측모형。
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of network traffic, a network traffic prediction method is proposed based on jointly optimization embedding dimension(m)and delay time(τ)of phase space reconstruction according the relation between embedding dimension and delay time. Least squares support vector machine is used as the network traffic prediction algorithm and the optimalτand m is selected according to prediction results of the network traffic, the simulation analysis is carried out on network traffic data to test the performance of single step and multi-step prediction model. The results show that the proposed method can effectively select the optimalτand m, significantly improve the prediction accuracy of network traffic, the prediction results is significantly higher than reference methods of the network traffic.
