CAJ | 학술논문

针对舰船运动系统的复杂性及非线性，提出采用灰色拓扑预测模型、GM(1,1)模型建立舰船运动的单项预测模型，并对各单项模型的优缺点进行了比较分析。采用标准差法建立基于拓扑预测与GM(1,1)模型的舰船运动组合预测模型。结果表明，组合预测模型的预测精度高于各单项模型的精度，该组合模型可作为提高舰船运动数据预测精度的有效工具。
침대함선운동계통적복잡성급비선성，제출채용회색탁복예측모형、GM(1,1)모형건립함선운동적단항예측모형，병대각단항모형적우결점진행료비교분석。채용표준차법건립기우탁복예측여GM(1,1)모형적함선운동조합예측모형。결과표명，조합예측모형적예측정도고우각단항모형적정도，해조합모형가작위제고함선운동수거예측정도적유효공구。
Aimed against complexity and non-linearity of ship motion system,adopt grey topology prediction model and GM(1, 1) model to construct forecasting models of ship motion respectively,as well as,analyzed and compared the advantages and the disadvantages of these models.Gave the combination model of ship motion predictionwith the standard deviation based on the above two models.The results shown that the combined model has a high prediction accuracy compare with other two prediction models,and the combined model can also take as an effective tool to improve prediction accuracy in ship motion forecasting.