CAJ | 학술논문

剩余寿命预测是视情维修决策的重点和难点。针对工程实践中历史数据少、模型参数估计精度低的问题，建立一种基于随机滤波（SF）的齿轮箱剩余寿命预测模型。该方法采用递归期望最大化（REM）算法对模型参数进行递归更新，推导极大似然估计方法的参数递归更新过程，最后经实例验证模型的有效性和实用性。
잉여수명예측시시정유수결책적중점화난점。침대공정실천중역사수거소、모형삼수고계정도저적문제，건립일충기우수궤려파（SF）적치륜상잉여수명예측모형。해방법채용체귀기망최대화（REM）산법대모형삼수진행체귀경신，추도겁대사연고계방법적삼수체귀경신과정，최후경실례험증모형적유효성화실용성。
Residual life prediction is a critical and difficult problem in condition-based maintenance decision-making.To deal with the problem of limited practical data and inaccurate estimation of initial parameters in maintenance practice,a residual life prediction method for gearbox based on stochastic filtering (SF)is proposed.In this method,recursive expectation maximization (REM) algorithm is introduced to update the parameters,and a maximum likelihood estimation method is designed to update the unknown parameters.Finally,the validity and practicability of the model are validated by an example.