中国卫生信息管理杂志
中國衛生信息管理雜誌
중국위생신식관리잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF HEALTH INFORMATICS AND MANAGEMENT
2014年
3期
291-295
,共5页
陈翔%李丽星%洪嘉铭%周怡
陳翔%李麗星%洪嘉銘%週怡
진상%리려성%홍가명%주이
Markov模型%死因顺位%疾病状态转移
Markov模型%死因順位%疾病狀態轉移
Markov모형%사인순위%질병상태전이
Markov model%Rank order of death causes%Transition of disease state
目的以肇庆市第一人民医院2003～2006年住院病例死因顺位转移情况为依据，预测2007～2012年该院住院病例死因顺位分布转移情况，探讨2005年实施《全国高血压社区规范化管理》项目以来肇庆地区高血压防治取得的效果。方法应用Markov状态转移矩阵预测高血压病防控对死因顺位分布的影响。结果Markov模型预测该院住院患者死因顺位分布转移与实际情况吻合较好，前三位主要死因分别从2003～2004年的肿瘤、神经系统和循环系统疾病，变为2005年开始的肿瘤、循环系统和神经系统疾病，神经系统脑意外死亡减少，到2012年且各病种的住院病例平均死亡年龄增长了4.1岁。结论从该院十年来死因顺位变化看，实施《全国高血压社区规范化管理》在广东肇庆地区可能有较为明显的效果，Markov模型用于预测各种疾病状态转移趋势显示出较好的优势。
目的以肇慶市第一人民醫院2003～2006年住院病例死因順位轉移情況為依據，預測2007～2012年該院住院病例死因順位分佈轉移情況，探討2005年實施《全國高血壓社區規範化管理》項目以來肇慶地區高血壓防治取得的效果。方法應用Markov狀態轉移矩陣預測高血壓病防控對死因順位分佈的影響。結果Markov模型預測該院住院患者死因順位分佈轉移與實際情況吻閤較好，前三位主要死因分彆從2003～2004年的腫瘤、神經繫統和循環繫統疾病，變為2005年開始的腫瘤、循環繫統和神經繫統疾病，神經繫統腦意外死亡減少，到2012年且各病種的住院病例平均死亡年齡增長瞭4.1歲。結論從該院十年來死因順位變化看，實施《全國高血壓社區規範化管理》在廣東肇慶地區可能有較為明顯的效果，Markov模型用于預測各種疾病狀態轉移趨勢顯示齣較好的優勢。
목적이조경시제일인민의원2003～2006년주원병례사인순위전이정황위의거，예측2007～2012년해원주원병례사인순위분포전이정황，탐토2005년실시《전국고혈압사구규범화관리》항목이래조경지구고혈압방치취득적효과。방법응용Markov상태전이구진예측고혈압병방공대사인순위분포적영향。결과Markov모형예측해원주원환자사인순위분포전이여실제정황문합교호，전삼위주요사인분별종2003～2004년적종류、신경계통화순배계통질병，변위2005년개시적종류、순배계통화신경계통질병，신경계통뇌의외사망감소，도2012년차각병충적주원병례평균사망년령증장료4.1세。결론종해원십년래사인순위변화간，실시《전국고혈압사구규범화관리》재엄동조경지구가능유교위명현적효과，Markov모형용우예측각충질병상태전이추세현시출교호적우세。
Objective To forecast the distribution of hospital rank order for death causes from 2007 to 2012, which is based on the transition condition of death cause from 2003 to 2006 in the first People’s hospital of Zhaoqing city; investigate the effect of hypertension preventing and controlling in Zhaoqing district since 2005 to implement the standardized management of hypertension based on community. Methods Using Markov state transition matrix to forecast the influence of hypertension preventing and controlling for rank order for death causes distribution. Results The condition of distribution and transition of rank order for death causes with Markov model forecasting was in good accordance with the true condition. The first three causes of death were tumor, nervous system disease and circulatory disease from 2003 to 2004; then there were tumor, circulatory disease and nervous system disease since 2005. The average death age of each disease increased 4.1 years old until 2012. Conclusion An observation at the change of rank order for death causes since the latest ten years, the effect of hypertension preventing and controlling is obvious after implementing the standardized management of hypertension based on community. Markov model has shown its advantages to forecast the transfer tendency of various disease states.
