交通信息与安全
交通信息與安全
교통신식여안전
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT INFORMATION AND SAFETY
2014年
3期
12-17
,共6页
郭士永%李文权%陈茜%左毅刚
郭士永%李文權%陳茜%左毅剛
곽사영%리문권%진천%좌의강
公交通勤%出发时间选择行为%多项Logit模型%公交动态信息
公交通勤%齣髮時間選擇行為%多項Logit模型%公交動態信息
공교통근%출발시간선택행위%다항Logit모형%공교동태신식
transit commuting%departure time choice behavior%multinomial Logit model%dynamic transit informa-tion
在交通行为分析中,传统效用函数形式不能反映个人属性对信息效用感知的影响。改进效用函数形式,运用多项Logit模型理论,建立了公交动态信息下的公交通勤者出发时间选择行为初始模型。从初始模型中选择t检验显著的解释变量,并分别基于传统效用函数形式、改进的效用函数建立了2个修正模型。对比2个修正模型标定结果发现,改进的效用函数比传统的效用函数更有利于提高模型性能。研究也表明:性别、收入的t检验值分别为2.02、-2.25,说明二者对乘坐时间信息效用感知显著;教育属性的t检验值为2.03,说明其对车内拥挤程度信息效用感知影响显著;乘坐时间取均值,车内拥挤度为0.7时,二者效用比值为1.54∶1,说明乘坐时间信息是影响出发时间选择最重要的因素。
在交通行為分析中,傳統效用函數形式不能反映箇人屬性對信息效用感知的影響。改進效用函數形式,運用多項Logit模型理論,建立瞭公交動態信息下的公交通勤者齣髮時間選擇行為初始模型。從初始模型中選擇t檢驗顯著的解釋變量,併分彆基于傳統效用函數形式、改進的效用函數建立瞭2箇脩正模型。對比2箇脩正模型標定結果髮現,改進的效用函數比傳統的效用函數更有利于提高模型性能。研究也錶明:性彆、收入的t檢驗值分彆為2.02、-2.25,說明二者對乘坐時間信息效用感知顯著;教育屬性的t檢驗值為2.03,說明其對車內擁擠程度信息效用感知影響顯著;乘坐時間取均值,車內擁擠度為0.7時,二者效用比值為1.54∶1,說明乘坐時間信息是影響齣髮時間選擇最重要的因素。
재교통행위분석중,전통효용함수형식불능반영개인속성대신식효용감지적영향。개진효용함수형식,운용다항Logit모형이론,건립료공교동태신식하적공교통근자출발시간선택행위초시모형。종초시모형중선택t검험현저적해석변량,병분별기우전통효용함수형식、개진적효용함수건립료2개수정모형。대비2개수정모형표정결과발현,개진적효용함수비전통적효용함수경유리우제고모형성능。연구야표명:성별、수입적t검험치분별위2.02、-2.25,설명이자대승좌시간신식효용감지현저;교육속성적t검험치위2.03,설명기대차내옹제정도신식효용감지영향현저;승좌시간취균치,차내옹제도위0.7시,이자효용비치위1.54∶1,설명승좌시간신식시영향출발시간선택최중요적인소。
The traditional utility function form cannot be used to study the influence of individual attributes on the perceived utility of transit information .In order to overcome this issue ,a modified utility function form is developed to study the impact of dynamic transit information onto the choice behavior of commuting departure time .According to the results of the preliminary model ,independent variables whose t-test are significant are kept and used to develop two modi-fied models ,with one using traditional and the other using modified utility function form respectively .The comparison be-tween the two models shows that the one with the modified utility function form has a better model performance than the one with the traditional utility function form .The study results also indicate that the gender and income attributes ,whose t values are 2 .02 and-2 .25 ,have a significant impact on the perceived utility of riding time .In addition ,the education level has ,which has at value of 2.03,a significant impact on the perceived utility of crowding level .It is also found out that ,when the riding time takes its mean and the crowding level is 0.7 ,their utility ratio is 1.54∶1 .The ratio reveals that the riding time is the most important factor to influence the departure time choice of transit commuters .