水利水电科技进展
水利水電科技進展
수이수전과기진전
ADVANCES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF WATER RESOURCES
2014年
4期
46-52
,共7页
突变模型%熵权%灵敏度%水资源评价%辽宁省
突變模型%熵權%靈敏度%水資源評價%遼寧省
돌변모형%적권%령민도%수자원평개%요녕성
catastrophe model%entropy weight%sensitivity%water resources assessment%Liaoning Province
针对突变理论和传统突变模型对多目标、多准则复杂系统进行决策分析时，评价结果容易受到主观因素影响致使其准确性较低的问题，利用传统突变模型对辽宁省农业水资源可持续利用水平进行评价，比较不同方案得出的评价结果，分析传统突变模型的灵敏度；在此基础上，提出基于熵值法和熵权理论改进的突变模型，并进一步进行验证。结果表明，改进突变模型能有效避免人为主观因素的影响，评价方法科学合理，评价结果客观准确。
針對突變理論和傳統突變模型對多目標、多準則複雜繫統進行決策分析時，評價結果容易受到主觀因素影響緻使其準確性較低的問題，利用傳統突變模型對遼寧省農業水資源可持續利用水平進行評價，比較不同方案得齣的評價結果，分析傳統突變模型的靈敏度；在此基礎上，提齣基于熵值法和熵權理論改進的突變模型，併進一步進行驗證。結果錶明，改進突變模型能有效避免人為主觀因素的影響，評價方法科學閤理，評價結果客觀準確。
침대돌변이론화전통돌변모형대다목표、다준칙복잡계통진행결책분석시，평개결과용역수도주관인소영향치사기준학성교저적문제，이용전통돌변모형대요녕성농업수자원가지속이용수평진행평개，비교불동방안득출적평개결과，분석전통돌변모형적령민도；재차기출상，제출기우적치법화적권이론개진적돌변모형，병진일보진행험증。결과표명，개진돌변모형능유효피면인위주관인소적영향，평개방법과학합리，평개결과객관준학。
When the traditional catastrophe progression method are used to make a decision for a multi-object and multi-criterion complicated system, the assessment results are easily affected by subjective factors and its veracity are limited. In order to analyze the reliability of catastrophe progression method in practice, the sustainable utilization level of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province are evaluated by using traditional catastrophe model. Furthermore, the sensitivity are analyzed by comparing the assessment results of different schemes. Based on the above-mentioned challenges, an improved catastrophe model, based on entropy method and entropy weight theory, are proposed. The results are evaluated by using an improved catastrophe model and the information of objective facts of the study area. The example application showed that the improved catastrophe model can effectively avoid factitious subjectivity and are more scientific and reasonable. Additionally, the results are more objective and accurate.
