水利水电科技进展
水利水電科技進展
수이수전과기진전
ADVANCES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF WATER RESOURCES
2014年
4期
10-15
,共6页
水资源%水价%影子价格%投入占用产出表%九大流域
水資源%水價%影子價格%投入佔用產齣錶%九大流域
수자원%수개%영자개격%투입점용산출표%구대류역
water resources%water price%shadow price%input-occupancy-output table%Chinese nine major river basins
在全国和九大流域水资源投入占用产出表的基础上，通过建立线性规划模型，计算了2002年全国及九大流域农业用水、工业用水、生活用水、生态环境用水及总的生产用水的影子价格。将实际水价与影子价格进行对比，发现实际水价明显偏低，认为需要适当提高水价，在此基础上建立了不依赖于投入产出表的计算各类用水影子价格的非线性回归模型。应用该模型预测了2015年和2020年全国和九大流域农业用水、工业用水、生活用水、生态环境用水及总的生产用水的影子价格，结果表明：2020年全国和九大流域各类水资源的影子价格均比2015年有所提高，全国生产用水、工业用水、农业用水、生活用水和生态环境用水影子价格的涨幅分别为2.2%、1.3%、1.5%、0.3%和3.2%，九大流域中，依然是海河流域各类用水的影子价格最高，西南和内陆流域的影子价格最低。
在全國和九大流域水資源投入佔用產齣錶的基礎上，通過建立線性規劃模型，計算瞭2002年全國及九大流域農業用水、工業用水、生活用水、生態環境用水及總的生產用水的影子價格。將實際水價與影子價格進行對比，髮現實際水價明顯偏低，認為需要適噹提高水價，在此基礎上建立瞭不依賴于投入產齣錶的計算各類用水影子價格的非線性迴歸模型。應用該模型預測瞭2015年和2020年全國和九大流域農業用水、工業用水、生活用水、生態環境用水及總的生產用水的影子價格，結果錶明：2020年全國和九大流域各類水資源的影子價格均比2015年有所提高，全國生產用水、工業用水、農業用水、生活用水和生態環境用水影子價格的漲幅分彆為2.2%、1.3%、1.5%、0.3%和3.2%，九大流域中，依然是海河流域各類用水的影子價格最高，西南和內陸流域的影子價格最低。
재전국화구대류역수자원투입점용산출표적기출상，통과건립선성규화모형，계산료2002년전국급구대류역농업용수、공업용수、생활용수、생태배경용수급총적생산용수적영자개격。장실제수개여영자개격진행대비，발현실제수개명현편저，인위수요괄당제고수개，재차기출상건립료불의뢰우투입산출표적계산각류용수영자개격적비선성회귀모형。응용해모형예측료2015년화2020년전국화구대류역농업용수、공업용수、생활용수、생태배경용수급총적생산용수적영자개격，결과표명：2020년전국화구대류역각류수자원적영자개격균비2015년유소제고，전국생산용수、공업용수、농업용수、생활용수화생태배경용수영자개격적창폭분별위2.2%、1.3%、1.5%、0.3%화3.2%，구대류역중，의연시해하류역각류용수적영자개격최고，서남화내륙류역적영자개격최저。
Based on water resources input-occupancy-output tables of China and its nine major river basins, a linear programming model was constructed to calculate the shadow prices of agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, ecological water, and total production water in 2002. Then the actual price of water was compared with its shadow price. The results show that the actual prices is much lower than the shadow price. In consequence, it is necessary to raise the actual price of water. Accordingly, a nonlinear regression model, which is independent of the input-occupancy-output tables, was set up to calculate the shadow price of all kinds of water. The shadow prices of agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, ecological water, and total production water in China and its nine major river basins in 2015 and 2020 were forecasted based on this nonlinear regression model. The results show that the shadow prices of all kinds of water in 2020 will be higher than those in 2015. The shadow prices of production water, industrial water, agricultural water, domestic water, and ecological water in China would rise respectively by 2.2%, 1.3%, 1.5%, 0.3%, and 3.2% from 2015 to 2020. Among the nine major river basins in China, the shadow prices of all kinds of water in Haihe River basin is still the highest, while those of the south-west and inland river basins are the lowest.
