CAJ | 학술논문

为实现基于小样本数据的电压合格率准确预测，对电压合格率的众多影响因素进行分析并按静态影响因素与动态影响因素进行分类。鉴于静态影响因素对电压合格率的决定作用，采用一种基于层次分析法加权改进的灰关联分析方法，对影响电压合格率的静态影响因素进行排序，遴选出了对电压合格率的主要影响因素。由此建立电压合格率与主要影响因素之间的多元线性回归预测模型，进行电压合格率的预测。算例结果表明，提出的预测算法具有较高的预测精度，回归效果显著，对配电网的规划具有较大的指导意义。
위실현기우소양본수거적전압합격솔준학예측，대전압합격솔적음다영향인소진행분석병안정태영향인소여동태영향인소진행분류。감우정태영향인소대전압합격솔적결정작용，채용일충기우층차분석법가권개진적회관련분석방법，대영향전압합격솔적정태영향인소진행배서，린선출료대전압합격솔적주요영향인소。유차건립전압합격솔여주요영향인소지간적다원선성회귀예측모형，진행전압합격솔적예측。산례결과표명，제출적예측산법구유교고적예측정도，회귀효과현저，대배전망적규화구유교대적지도의의。
To achieve accurate prediction of voltage qualification rate. based on small sample of data the influen-cing factors of voltage qualification rate were analyzed and classified according to static and dynamic factors. Con-sidered the static factors play a decisive role for voltage qualification rate,an improved gray correlation analysis method based on AHP was used to sort static factors that affect the voltage qualification rate,the main factors of voltage qualification rate were selected. Thus,a multiple linear regression model was established between voltage qualification rate and the main factors,and the voltage qualification rate prediction was carried out. Numerical re-sults show that the prediction algorithm proposed has higher prediction accuracy,and the regression result is obvi-ous. The method provides some guidance to actual distribution network planning.