气象学报
氣象學報
기상학보
ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA
2013年
6期
1047-1060
,共14页
张莉%丁一汇%吴统文%辛晓歌%张艳武%徐影
張莉%丁一彙%吳統文%辛曉歌%張豔武%徐影
장리%정일회%오통문%신효가%장염무%서영
气候模式%地表气温%预估%不确定性
氣候模式%地錶氣溫%預估%不確定性
기후모식%지표기온%예고%불학정성
Climate model%Surface air temperature%Projection%Uncertainty
基于参加国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)的29个全球气候模式开展的历史气候模拟和3种典型浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下21世纪气候预估的结果,分析了单个模式和多模式集合平均(MME)的21世纪全球与中国年平均地表气温(ASAT)变化特征及2℃升温阈值的出现时间。多模式集合平均的结果显示:全球和中国年平均地表气温均将继续升高,21世纪末的升温幅度随着辐射强迫的增大而增大。RCP2.6情景下,年平均地表气温增幅先升高后降低,全球(中国)年平均地表气温在2056年(2049年)达到升温峰值,21世纪末升温1.74℃(2.12℃);RCP4.5情景下,年平均地表气温在21世纪前半叶逐渐升高,之后升温趋势减缓,21世纪后期趋于平稳,21世纪末全球(中国)年平均地表气温增幅为2.60℃(3.39℃);RCP8.5情景下,21世纪年平均地表气温快速升高,21世纪末全球(中国)年平均地表气温增幅为4.75℃(6.55℃)。全球平均的年平均地表气温增幅,在RCP2.6情景下没有超过2℃,RCP4.5和 RCP8.5情景下分别在2047和2038年达到2℃。RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国年平均地表气温增幅连续5 a不低于2℃的时间分别在2032、2033和2027年,明显早于全球平均。任一典型浓度路径情景下,达到2℃升温的时间,北半球同纬度地区早于南半球,同半球高纬度地区早于低纬度地区,同纬度地区陆地早于海洋。3种不同典型浓度路径情景下21世纪全球和中国年平均地表气温将继续升高这一结果是可信的,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球和中国年平均地表气温增幅超过2℃的结果模式之间有较高的一致性。多模式预估的全球和中国年平均地表气温升幅和不同幅度升温的出现时间均存在一定的不确定性,预估结果的不确定性随预估时间的延长而增大;相同情景下,中国年平均地表气温预估的不确定性大于全球。
基于參加國際耦閤模式比較計劃第5階段(CMIP5)的29箇全毬氣候模式開展的歷史氣候模擬和3種典型濃度路徑(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下21世紀氣候預估的結果,分析瞭單箇模式和多模式集閤平均(MME)的21世紀全毬與中國年平均地錶氣溫(ASAT)變化特徵及2℃升溫閾值的齣現時間。多模式集閤平均的結果顯示:全毬和中國年平均地錶氣溫均將繼續升高,21世紀末的升溫幅度隨著輻射彊迫的增大而增大。RCP2.6情景下,年平均地錶氣溫增幅先升高後降低,全毬(中國)年平均地錶氣溫在2056年(2049年)達到升溫峰值,21世紀末升溫1.74℃(2.12℃);RCP4.5情景下,年平均地錶氣溫在21世紀前半葉逐漸升高,之後升溫趨勢減緩,21世紀後期趨于平穩,21世紀末全毬(中國)年平均地錶氣溫增幅為2.60℃(3.39℃);RCP8.5情景下,21世紀年平均地錶氣溫快速升高,21世紀末全毬(中國)年平均地錶氣溫增幅為4.75℃(6.55℃)。全毬平均的年平均地錶氣溫增幅,在RCP2.6情景下沒有超過2℃,RCP4.5和 RCP8.5情景下分彆在2047和2038年達到2℃。RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中國年平均地錶氣溫增幅連續5 a不低于2℃的時間分彆在2032、2033和2027年,明顯早于全毬平均。任一典型濃度路徑情景下,達到2℃升溫的時間,北半毬同緯度地區早于南半毬,同半毬高緯度地區早于低緯度地區,同緯度地區陸地早于海洋。3種不同典型濃度路徑情景下21世紀全毬和中國年平均地錶氣溫將繼續升高這一結果是可信的,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全毬和中國年平均地錶氣溫增幅超過2℃的結果模式之間有較高的一緻性。多模式預估的全毬和中國年平均地錶氣溫升幅和不同幅度升溫的齣現時間均存在一定的不確定性,預估結果的不確定性隨預估時間的延長而增大;相同情景下,中國年平均地錶氣溫預估的不確定性大于全毬。
기우삼가국제우합모식비교계화제5계단(CMIP5)적29개전구기후모식개전적역사기후모의화3충전형농도로경(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)하21세기기후예고적결과,분석료단개모식화다모식집합평균(MME)적21세기전구여중국년평균지표기온(ASAT)변화특정급2℃승온역치적출현시간。다모식집합평균적결과현시:전구화중국년평균지표기온균장계속승고,21세기말적승온폭도수착복사강박적증대이증대。RCP2.6정경하,년평균지표기온증폭선승고후강저,전구(중국)년평균지표기온재2056년(2049년)체도승온봉치,21세기말승온1.74℃(2.12℃);RCP4.5정경하,년평균지표기온재21세기전반협축점승고,지후승온추세감완,21세기후기추우평은,21세기말전구(중국)년평균지표기온증폭위2.60℃(3.39℃);RCP8.5정경하,21세기년평균지표기온쾌속승고,21세기말전구(중국)년평균지표기온증폭위4.75℃(6.55℃)。전구평균적년평균지표기온증폭,재RCP2.6정경하몰유초과2℃,RCP4.5화 RCP8.5정경하분별재2047화2038년체도2℃。RCP2.6、RCP4.5화RCP8.5정경하중국년평균지표기온증폭련속5 a불저우2℃적시간분별재2032、2033화2027년,명현조우전구평균。임일전형농도로경정경하,체도2℃승온적시간,북반구동위도지구조우남반구,동반구고위도지구조우저위도지구,동위도지구륙지조우해양。3충불동전형농도로경정경하21세기전구화중국년평균지표기온장계속승고저일결과시가신적,RCP4.5화RCP8.5정경하전구화중국년평균지표기온증폭초과2℃적결과모식지간유교고적일치성。다모식예고적전구화중국년평균지표기온승폭화불동폭도승온적출현시간균존재일정적불학정성,예고결과적불학정성수예고시간적연장이증대;상동정경하,중국년평균지표기온예고적불학정성대우전구。
The paper examines the proj ected annual mean surface air temperature (ASAT)change characteristics and the occur-rence time for 2℃warming threshold over the globe and China in the 21st century under the three different Representative Con-centration Pathways (RCPs)(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)by the 29 coupled climate models participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).The multi-model ensemble mean (MME)shows that the ASAT over the globe and China is projected to increase in the 21st century under the three RCPs,and the larger radiative forcing the higher the increment of ASAT by the late of the 21st century (2091-2100).MME projects an increase-peak-decrease process of ASAT over the globe (China)under RCP2.6,with the peak value in 2056 (2049)and 1.74℃ (2.12℃)warming by the late of the 21st centu-ry relative to 1871 to 1900 mean.Under RCP4.5,MME projects ASAT gradually increasing and then tending to slightly in-crease or to be stable with 2.60℃ (3.39℃)warming over the globe (China)by the late of 21st century.The ASAT is projec-ted to fast increase under RCP8.5 with 4.75℃ (6.55℃)warming over the globe (China)by the late of 21st century.The global mean ASAT warming will unlikely reach 2℃ under RCP2.6,and will exceed 2℃ in 2047 and 2038 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively by MME.The China-averaged mean ASAT warming will exceed 2℃ in 2032,2033 and 2027 under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively by MME,which are much earlier than those for the global means.For any RCP, there are obvious geographical differences in the occurrence time for 2℃ warming,and it is earlier in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere,earlier in higher latitudes than in the lower ones for the same hemisphere,and earlier over land than over ocean for the same latitude.It is reliable that the ASAT over the globe and China will increase in the 21st centu-ry under any RCP.There is much high consistence among the models for the occurrence of 2℃ warming during the 21st centu-ry under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.There are also some uncertainties in ASAT change projection with the characteristics of the un-certainties increasing with the extension of the projected period,as well as larger for China than the global mean.